1. Technical Analysis: Complete Rebound Structure, Key Resistance and Support Clearly Visible
From the 1-hour K-line chart, ETH has recently followed the rhythm of "bottoming out at 3671 → violent rebound → consolidation."
Moving Average System: EMA7 (4037), MA7 (4037) along with EMA30 (3978), MA30 (3967) form a bullish arrangement, indicating strong support from short-term moving averages, which shows that the rebound trend has not been broken.
Bollinger Bands (BOLL): The current price is operating above the middle band (4001), with upper band resistance at 4078 and lower band support at 3923, showing clear characteristics of range-bound oscillation; the breakout direction will determine the short-term trend.
MACD Indicator: DIF (34.73) and DEA (30.05) are operating above the zero axis. Although the red bars have shortened, they have not turned green, indicating that bullish momentum has weakened but has not reversed. Be cautious of short-term pullbacks but do not be overly bearish.
2. On-chain Data: Institutional and Retail Movements Hold Secrets
Through on-chain tracking, it has been found that:
Recently, the number of large ETH transfers has significantly increased, with multiple institutional addresses showing "buying on dips" actions (combined with the backdrop of the continuous expansion of Ethereum ETFs in 2025, there is strong demand for institutional allocation).
The number of active retail addresses has quickly rebounded after the low point of 3671, indicating that market sentiment has shifted from panic to optimism, but one should be wary of the potential risk of "retail chasing highs → short-term selling pressure."
3. News Front: Ethereum Ecosystem and Macro Benefits Drive Growth
Ecosystem: The total locked value of Ethereum Layer 2 is expected to break historical highs in 2025, with popular applications from projects like Starknet and zkSync continuously attracting capital inflow, providing "fundamental support" for ETH's value.
Macro: Expectations for the end of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle are rising, risk asset sentiment is warming, and the overall liquidity environment in the crypto market is friendly, with ETH benefiting as a "blue-chip coin."
Operational Rhythm: Precise Timing, No Hesitation in Profiting
Bullish Strategy: If a pullback occurs to the 4000-4020 range (supported by moving averages + middle Bollinger band), one can gradually build long positions, with the first target at 4070-4080 (Bollinger upper band resistance), and a strict stop loss set below 3980. If a strong breakout occurs above 4080, one can chase long positions targeting around 4150.
Bearish Strategy: If it unexpectedly breaks below 3980, the short-term trend turns bearish. A pullback to around 3950 can be used to lightly short, targeting 3920-3900.
The crypto market is like a battlefield; one misstep can lead to total defeat! Follow me for daily in-depth analysis of the market, on-chain funds, and news, allowing you to accurately "profit" amidst volatility without missing opportunities. Like and bookmark this article; in the next update, I will help you analyze larger cycle trend opportunities. Keep up with the rhythm; the wealth code is only shared with "insiders"! Follow the public account: Mu Zhou Talks Coins.
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