Arthur Hayes, co-founder of crypto exchange Bitmex and chief investment officer of Maelstrom, has sharply criticized Japan’s fiscal policies, warning that the country’s latest stimulus risks further weakening the yen while predicting a long-term rise in bitcoin. His remarks argued that repeated government interventions and aggressive monetary expansion illustrate the broader instability of fiat-based systems.
The comments came after Japan unveiled a new relief package under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi aimed at curbing inflation and supporting households and businesses. Hayes wrote on social media platform X on Oct. 22:
Translation: let’s print money to hand out to folks to help with food and energy costs. These costs rose because we printed so much money before. This is insanity but whatever: $Yen to 200 and $ BTC to $1mm. Yachtzee.
His statement combined a bearish view on Japan’s currency with a long-term bullish stance on BTC, reflecting his conviction that policy-driven money creation erodes confidence in traditional currencies. Hayes’ projection of the yen sliding to 200 per U.S. dollar and bitcoin reaching $1 million underscores his belief that monetary excess will continue to drive adoption of decentralized financial systems.
The Japanese yen continues to face depreciation pressures against the U.S. dollar, reflecting ongoing economic challenges in Japan, including persistent inflation in food and energy imports, a dovish Bank of Japan (BOJ) policy stance, and global yield differentials favoring the USD. As of this writing, the USD/JPY exchange rate stands at approximately 151.93, meaning 1 USD buys about 151.93 yen.
Japan’s new fiscal package includes subsidies for energy, wage incentives, and funding for local development. Supporters argue these measures are necessary to stabilize consumer spending, while critics—among them Hayes—see them as perpetuating dependency on state-driven liquidity. His remarks highlight an expanding divide between policymakers defending interventionist economics and crypto advocates positioning bitcoin as a neutral, global alternative to fiat-based monetary regimes.
- What is Arthur Hayes’ prediction for bitcoin and the yen?
Hayes expects bitcoin to hit $1 million and the yen to weaken to 200 per U.S. dollar due to excessive stimulus. - Why does Hayes criticize Japan’s stimulus plan?
He argues it continues harmful money printing policies that destabilize fiat currencies and boost bitcoin’s appeal. - How do Hayes’ views reflect broader crypto sentiment?
His stance aligns with crypto advocates who see bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and fiat devaluation. - What does Japan’s fiscal package include?
It features energy subsidies, wage growth incentives, and regional development funding aimed at supporting the economy.
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