As investors react to developments between the U.S. and China over tariffs and trade, Bitcoin’s price will likely fall below the $100,000 mark before pushing toward new all-time highs, according to Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick.
In a Wednesday note, the global head of digital assets research at the bank wrote that “a dip below $100,000 seems inevitable, although the dump may be short-lived.”
He also confirmed to Decrypt that his year-end price target of $200,000 remains unchanged, suggesting that the asset’s price will nearly double in the coming months.
Bitcoin was little changed at about $108,200 on Wednesday, according to CoinGecko. Over the past 16 days, the asset’s price has fallen roughly 12% from an all-time high of $126,000, as the asset has been rocked by what Kendrick described as a tariff-fueled, “fear-driven selloff.”
If Bitcoin’s price enters five-digit territory, it may be the “last time” it falls below the psychological barrier Kendrick wrote. However, he acknowledged that nobody truly knows how far the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization will fall “before finding a base.”
Historically, October and November have been Bitcoin’s strongest months, with the asset rising 19.8% and 46% on average since 2013, according to CoinGlass. That has led onlookers to coin the term “Uptober,” but Bitcoin’s market has changed drastically in recent years.
Since Bitcoin peaked over two weeks ago, the asset has plunged as low as $104,800. In April, Bitcoin fell as low as $76,300 after the White House unveiled “reciprocal” tariffs on most nations.
Kendrick noted that gold, historically a safe-haven assert, has outperformed Bitcoin in recent months. But on Tuesday, that dynamic showed signs of potentially breaking down, as the precious metal notched its biggest daily drop in over a decade.
“Yesterday’s sharp gold selloff coincided with a strong intra-day bounce in Bitcoin,” he wrote. This was presumably a ‘sell gold, buy Bitcoin’ flow. Medium-term I expect more of this, and further such evidence would be constructive for a Bitcoin low being formed.”
On Wednesday, gold’s price slipped further. It changed hands around $4,075 per ounce, marking a steep drop from a record $4,381 per ounce just days before. Yet cryptocurrency prices, across larger assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, were slightly in the red.
On Tuesday, analysts told Decrypt that Bitcoin was outperforming gold as geopolitical tensions eased and companies notched strong third-quarter earnings on Wall Street. One pointed to an inflation report expected on Friday as a potential wildcard.
China may be the U.S.’s largest trading partner, but it's one of several countries with a large manufacturing base with whom the Trump administration has been trying to strike a deal.
India, for example, may reach an agreement with the U.S. soon that could curtail oil purchases from Russia, local media outlet Mint reported on Wednesday. The price of crude oil, which is correlated with expectations of economic growth, meanwhile rose 2.3% to $58.5 a barrel.
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