During the CNBC chat, Kevin Hassett hinted the impasse could break if Democrats drop their health-care wish list—namely, extending ACA subsidies—and back a federal spending deal. He also cautioned that if the standoff drags on, the White House might be forced to consider “stronger measures,” though he kept the details of those moves close to the vest.

Prediction market speculators are laying down hefty bets that Washington’s latest power struggle won’t be ending anytime soon. Over on Polymarket’s “When will the Government shutdown end?” market, the smart money’s circling Nov. 1 as the odds-on favorite—apparently, plenty of political junkies are paying for front-row seats to the chaos. With total volume topping $1.25 million, there’s no shortage of bettors chasing bragging rights.

As of Oct. 20, the Polymarket odds have swung dramatically toward an Oct. 23–26 resolution, now leading the pack at 32%—a fiery jump of 27 percentage points. The enthusiasm cools quickly after that: Oct. 27–30 trails at 13%, Oct. 31–Nov. 3 lands at 11%, and everything beyond early November limps into single digits. Long shots like Nov. 4–7 get a meager 5%, while Nov. 8–15 clings to 8%.

Polymarket odds on Oct. 20, 2025.

Still, a defiant 27% of bettors think this standoff could drag past Nov. 16, meaning some cynics expect Congress to keep the drama rolling well into Thanksgiving season. The market’s flashing a clear message—“don’t hold your breath”—and judging by the chart’s latest pop, traders are betting Capitol Hill’s soap opera still has a few messy plot twists left.

Kalshi traders aren’t buying the idea of a quick fix—this shutdown’s looking more marathon than momentary. As of Oct. 20, the Kalshi market’s calling for a 38.5-day ordeal, a wild leap from early Oct.’s meek 10-day outlook. Translation: speculators now expect this Capitol standoff to waltz right past Halloween and maybe even join the Thanksgiving dinner table chatter.

Kalshi odds on Oct. 20, 2025.

Total volume on Kalshi has ballooned beyond $13 million, proof that political punters can’t look away from D.C.’s fiscal melodrama. A hefty 74% of traders think the shutdown will blow past 30 days, while 59% expect it to top the 35-day record from 2018-19. Nearly half—44%—see it dragging past 40 days, and about 20% are bracing for a 55-day government freeze-fest.

Kalshi’s curve paints a slow-motion train wreck: with each added week of gridlock, hope fades—but not fast. Even a stubborn 10% are betting on a two-month chill or worse. Congress might call it “negotiating,” but traders know better—they’re wagering on Washington’s most reliable habit: kicking the can down Pennsylvania Avenue.

The shutdown has reportedly sidelined roughly 900,000 federal workers and left another 700,000 clocking in without a paycheck, rippling through multiple government agencies like a bureaucratic domino effect. On Oct. 11, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump directed Department of War Secretary Pete Hegseth to “use all available, unobligated funds” to ensure military pay during the shutdown.

So far, the only thing running in Washington is the clock. As prediction markets buzz and Capitol Hill drags its heels, this “Schumer shutdown” is shaping up to be a seasonal feature rather than a fleeting glitch. If history’s any guide, expect the can to take another scenic trip down Pennsylvania Avenue—because when Congress says “soon,” they usually mean “sometime after dessert.”

• When did the 2025 U.S. government shutdown begin?
  The 2025 U.S. government shutdown began in early October after Congress failed to pass a federal spending bill.
• How long do prediction markets expect the shutdown to last?
  Kalshi traders project roughly 38.5 days, while Polymarket bettors lean toward an early November resolution.
• Who’s affected by the current government shutdown?
  About 900,000 federal employees are furloughed, with another 700,000 working without pay.
• What’s driving the political standoff in Washington?
  The deadlock centers on Democrats’ push to extend ACA subsidies and Republicans’ resistance to new spending measures.

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