According to predictions from market infrastructure provider Azuro researcher Mike Rychko, prediction markets are gradually entering the mainstream, and data supports this trend.
Rychko stated in a post on the X platform on Thursday that prediction markets are slowly moving out of the crypto space and into the real world. He believes that their ease of use is likely to make them the first decentralized financial product to achieve large-scale application.
“The vast majority of people will never open a derivatives exchange,” Rychko wrote, “but ‘Mamdani has an 87% chance of winning’—this is a language anyone can understand.”
He added, “Humans are inherently lazy,” craving “clear, easy-to-understand signals,” and prediction markets perfectly meet this need by transforming complex forecasts into concise data points.
Earlier this month, crypto-driven prediction market Polymarket received a $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, bringing its valuation to $9 billion.
Reports in early September indicated that Polymarket plans to go public in the U.S., with a valuation expected to reach $10 billion, following the appointment of the U.S. president's son to the company's board.
Founded in 2020, Polymarket allows users to bet on real-world events using stablecoins, ranging from elections to sports event outcomes. The platform has seen a surge in popularity during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, with both activity and trading volume reaching all-time highs.
According to Rychko, the mainstream exposure of prediction markets has reached unprecedented heights in recent months. The large screen in New York City showcasing the dynamics of the mayoral election-specific market has attracted widespread attention, with its video views on the X platform nearing 13 million.
Rychko stated that this display serves as a “public signal” and a “real-time reflection of collective belief.” “Just as stock quotes defined the financial era of the 1980s, prediction quotes are beginning to define the information economy of the 2020s,” he wrote.
Kalshi is a regulated prediction market platform in the U.S., overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and became the first federally regulated event contract exchange. The platform recently made an appearance in the long-running animated series "South Park," which is considered an important part of popular culture, featuring in an episode focused on U.S. President Trump.
Although Kalshi is not a crypto-driven platform, it has entered the market segment propelled by crypto projects.
During the U.S. presidential election, Polymarket gained fame due to its market performance, attracting significant attention and funding. Dune data shows that the number of daily active wallets for the service reached an all-time high in early 2025, exceeding 72,600 on January 19.
On December 27, 2024, the platform's daily trading volume approached 590,000, setting a new record. Although it has not been able to maintain that peak since, the platform's activity remains high, with trading volume exceeding $1 billion this month and cumulative trading volume surpassing $15.7 billion (data source: Dune).
This trend is particularly evident when observing the total locked value of Polymarket. DefiLlama data shows that the protocol's current total locked value exceeds $194 million—down 62% from the peak of $512 million during the U.S. presidential election betting period, but up 2,325% from $8 million a year ago.
According to Rychko, this sustained activity highlights the appeal of prediction markets as DeFi products—they combine cultural relevance with real-world financial participation.
Related: Developers Warn: Corporate Intrusion Could Undermine the Core Principles of Ethereum (ETH)
Original: “From South Park to Wall Street: Are Prediction Markets Going Mainstream?”
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