The dashboard aggregates historical market data to illustrate how often Polymarket’s leading outcomes match actual event results. According to the data, predictions were accurate 95.2% of the time, just four hours before resolution. Even when measured a month prior, accuracy remained strong at 91.1%, suggesting consistent reliability well ahead of real-world outcomes.

Polymarket says the new tool positions it not only as the largest active prediction market but also as one of the most reliable. It compares favorably to polls and expert forecasts in areas such as politics, sports, and global events. The metrics are derived from Dune Analytics dashboards tracking resolved Polymarket markets, with price snapshots taken at multiple intervals before each market’s resolution.

The dashboard also features key statistical measures such as the Brier Score—a standard method to evaluate forecast accuracy. Polymarket’s average score of 0.0565 indicates strong calibration between forecasted probabilities and real-world outcomes. Additional data visualizations include breakdowns of “Yes” and “No” resolutions, showing that roughly 78.8% of markets historically closed as “No,” reflecting a tendency to overprice improbable events.

All analytics are powered by data scientist Alex McCullough’s Dune dashboards, titled “How Accurate Is Polymarket” and “Polymarket Brier Score.” This transparency ensures accuracy metrics are drawn directly from onchain data without external adjustments or subjective weighting.

The dashboard builds on McCullough’s prior March 2025 research, which reported a 94% accuracy rate at the same four-hour mark. The updated version raises that to 95.2%, showcasing improvements in data depth and market activity during 2025’s surge in prediction market participation.

• What is Polymarket’s Accuracy Dashboard?
  It’s an interactive tool showing the accuracy of Polymarket’s prediction markets using historical data from resolved events.
• How accurate are Polymarket’s predictions?
  According to the dashboard, Polymarket’s markets were accurate 95.2% of the time four hours before resolution.
• Who developed the analytics behind the dashboard?
  The dashboard uses data and visualizations from Dune Analytics boards by data scientist Alex McCullough.
• Where can users view the dashboard?
  The full dashboard and live metrics are available at polymarket.com/accuracy.

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