The surge in gold and silver was unexpected, and it is anticipated that Bitcoin will surpass gold.

CN
11 hours ago

During this time, whether or not one pays attention to other investment fields, I believe many readers have inadvertently seen extensive reports on gold and silver in various media.

The trend of gold in recent years has been like a shot of adrenaline, repeatedly reaching new highs, while silver has suddenly surged this year, breaking through a new high that hasn't been seen in over forty years.

Seeing their vigorous trends reminds me of my past interest in precious metals.

I started paying attention to precious metals over a decade ago.

At that time, my interest in precious metals was partly due to curiosity; I wanted to try something beyond the stock market. On the other hand, at that time, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) happened to offer four types of precious metal investment options: gold, silver, platinum, and palladium. Since I had an account with ICBC, I casually started to follow them.

In the following years, I mainly gathered information and trends about these four precious metals from kitco.com.

During the learning process, I discovered:

  • There are too many factors that interfere with their short-term trends, and judging their short-term movements is completely beyond my ability.

  • Once these metals establish a trend (bull market or bear market), generally speaking, the trend lasts quite a long time and the fluctuations are significant. In this process, if I were to engage in short-term trading, I would easily end up selling too early or getting stuck.

If I sell too early, then for the next few years, I would have to watch it skyrocket, but I would hesitate to jump back in; and if I get stuck, I would have to stand by helplessly for the next few years, unwilling to cut my losses.

This feeling is truly terrible.

However, at the same time, if I broaden my perspective, I can still see very clear patterns:

  • From a long-term perspective, as long as one buys during a bear market, gold and silver will definitely break through their previous highs.

  • After 2013, platinum began to decline in price due to palladium's substitution in the automotive industry, which made its value relative to gold increasingly underestimated. But I have a strong feeling that this precious metal, which is far rarer than gold, will shine brightly in the future, and its price will not remain low forever. Although I didn't know what factors would trigger this or when it would happen, the feeling was very strong.

So, I changed my approach and decided to take a completely long-term position. At the end of 2014, I made my last purchases of gold, silver, and platinum in my ICBC account and completely stopped paying attention.

(Note: Later, ICBC stopped offering platinum purchases and only provided options for closing existing positions.)

After that, I realized I wasn't very good at in-depth research on precious metals, so I didn't follow them daily as I used to; I only occasionally checked relevant news and information when I had the chance.

Time flew by to the beginning of this year.

At that time, gold was already very popular, and I would occasionally see videos pushed to me on my video account introducing the gold market in Shenzhen's Shuibei.

Out of curiosity, I decided to visit the market. I remember it was just a few days before the New Year, and the entire market was packed with people buying gold nuggets, gold bars, and gold jewelry.

But there was one shop that stood out; it specialized in platinum. I went in to take a look, and the salesperson quickly pulled me over to introduce the prices of various platinum jewelry. When I heard the prices, I was surprised to find that platinum was cheaper than when I last bought it in 2014!

Then I checked online and found that platinum had begun to show a supply-demand gap, with supply starting to fall short of demand.

At that time, compared to gold's price of over $2000 per ounce, platinum was only over $900. So, without hesitation, I bought platinum again after an 11-year gap.

Since then, I have witnessed the soaring prices of gold, silver, and platinum.

I never imagined that gold could rise to over $4000 at this time. I also never thought silver would break through $50. Conversely, I find it quite normal for platinum to rise to $1600 now.

Will these precious metals continue to rise at their current prices?

I estimate they might, just like my past experiences suggest, once precious metals start a trend, they don't reverse quickly.

However, how many adjustments they will go through in the future, how much they will ultimately rise, and how long they will continue to rise are beyond my judgment. Therefore, I cannot provide any investment advice to our readers.

At the current price levels, I definitely will not be buying these three metals.

Reflecting on my experiences over the past decade, I am even more convinced of one thing:

This long-term strategy is equally applicable to Bitcoin and Ethereum. Their short-term trends are not easy to grasp, but in my view, their long-term trends are clearer and more straightforward than those of gold and silver. For such assets, it is best to hold long-term whenever possible, ignoring short-term fluctuations.

Additionally, I am very pleased to see gold's current surge because I believe that Bitcoin's market value will definitely exceed that of gold in our lifetime. The higher gold's market value rises, the more astonishing Bitcoin's future market value will be.

Seizing this great opportunity for the future does not require intelligence, education, or background; it only requires patience and confidence.

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