Key Points:
The strong spot demand from U.S. investors on Coinbase supports BTC being anchored above $110,000.
7,300 dormant BTC have been transferred, indicating profit-taking behavior.
Derivatives wallets have moved 364,000 BTC, signaling upcoming volatility.
BTC continues to solidify its market position above $110,000, primarily due to strong spot demand from U.S. investors. The Coinbase premium index, which tracks the price difference of BTC between Coinbase and global exchanges, remains strongly positive despite a recent wave of liquidation-driven sell-offs.
Industry experts noted that on October 10, this index surged to 0.18, reaching its highest level since March 2024, indicating that despite the spread of market panic, a significant number of spot buy orders are still actively trading in the $110,000 to $100,000 range. A positive premium is typically seen as a signal of sustained buying interest from U.S. investors, further enhancing recent market resilience.
Supporting this view, on-chain data analysis from CryptoQuant shows a rapid accumulation among short-term holders (STHs), particularly wallets holding BTC for less than a month. Data indicates that after the recent market pullback, STH supply surged from 1.6 million BTC to over 1.87 million BTC in just a few days, highlighting investors' active buy-the-dip strategies.
However, market analysts have observed that older BTC are starting to flow again, introducing potential friction in the short-term market. This week, approximately 7,343 BTC that had been held for two to three years were reactivated and transferred on-chain, suggesting that some long-term holders may be realizing profits or rebalancing their portfolios.
Crypto analyst Maartunn stated in a recent study that Binance's net active trading volume shows that selling pressure remains, while the short-term holder spent output profit ratio (STH-SOPR) indicator, which measures whether recent capital flows are in profit or loss, is still below 1.
This data indicates that despite other market participants showing strong accumulation trends, profit-taking behavior among short-term holders remains prevalent, temporarily suppressing credible market recovery momentum.
Meanwhile, the latest data from CryptoQuant depicts a dual trend in the BTC market: on one hand, a stable accumulation trend, and on the other, an impending risk of short-term volatility. Although the 30-day net flow simple moving average (SMA) shows a historic outflow of 5,620 BTC, indicating increased confidence among long-term holders and reduced exchange supply, the derivatives sector is exhibiting a starkly different trend.
Market data shows that from Thursday to Wednesday, approximately 364,000 BTC were moved within internal wallets of derivatives exchanges, primarily concentrated in Bitfinex (210,000 BTC), Bybit (108,000 BTC), and Binance (37,000 BTC). Analysts believe these fund movements reflect traders utilizing existing capital to bolster margin accounts in preparation for potential large-scale leveraged positions.
This contradiction between tightening supply fundamentals and expanding derivatives activity brings higher volatility expectations for the BTC market. Industry observers generally believe that while the macro trend remains bullish, the recent market pattern indicates that BTC prices are approaching a critical inflection point.
Related: If Bitcoin (BTC) loses the $110,000 support level, where could its price drop to?
This article does not contain any investment advice or recommendations. Any investment and trading activities involve risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
Original article: “Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Keeps BTC Above $110K: Will This Level Hold?”
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