Key Points:
The double top pattern of BNB suggests a potential 30% pullback to $835 in October.
Binance's outflow reached $21.75 billion, the largest among all centralized exchanges.
BNB faced resistance twice around $1,350 in the past week, failing to sustain its record rally, which increases the likelihood of a pullback in October.
The daily chart of BNB shows a classic double top pattern forming in the $1,350-$1,375 range, indicating that after a 95% rise year-to-date, the trend may be exhausting.
The two peaks in the chart below, marked as Top 1 and Top 2, show failed breakout attempts, with the neckline support around $1,100. A decisive break below this neckline could validate the double top pattern.
If so, the downside potential for BNB is expected to equal the maximum height of the pattern, with a downward target of approximately $835. This implies a pullback of about 30% from current levels by the end of October or early November.
Momentum indicators are also sending warning signals, including the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI), which has entered a correction phase after retreating from the overbought zone (above 70).
Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for BNB has shown a bearish crossover, further indicating a weakening buying power in the market. If BNB breaks below the $1,100 support, bearish momentum may strengthen.
According to CoinGlass data, in the past week, Binance users withdrew up to $21.75 billion from centralized exchanges, with a single-day outflow reaching $4.1 billion.
This outflow occurred after the liquidation crisis on October 10, when Binance's internal oracle mispriced key collateral assets, triggering a series of margin call notifications.
As of Wednesday, Binance's daily outflow has eased, but the seven-day balance still decreased by $3.69 billion.
Some analysts suspect that the $20 billion liquidation event was a deliberate attack on Binance's unified account margin system.
Dr. Martin Hiesboeck, Head of Research at Uphold, stated on Monday that attackers exploited vulnerabilities in Binance's margin system, causing losses between $500 million and $1 billion.
He referred to this incident as "Luna 2."
At the time of these allegations, BNB was facing resistance in the $1,350-$1,375 range, reflecting a loss of market confidence, despite Binance announcing a $400 million rescue plan.
BNB is still trading above its key Exponential Moving Average (EMA) support levels, including the 20-day EMA (green wave) near $1,155 and the 50-day EMA (red wave) around $1,042.
A rebound from these EMAs, establishing them as new support, could invalidate the double top pattern. In this case, the price discovery area would be above $1,350, which remains valid in October.
Related: Opinion: The Maturity of Cryptocurrency Requires Systematic Discipline, Not Speculation
Original: “BNB Price Analysis: ‘Double Top’ Pattern Warns of Potential 30% Drop”
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