Core Points:
76% of retail traders are net long on Solana, a historical signal that typically leans bullish.
Financial institutions and enterprises are accumulating SOL below $200.
The approval results for the spot SOL ETF will be announced on Thursday, with a noticeable increase in whale activity.
Recent data suggests that the price range of Solana (SOL) below $200 may be undervalued, as retail traders are rarely showing strong bullish tendencies.
On-chain analysis platform Hyblock indicates that SOL currently has the highest percentage of true retail long positions (TRA) among major crypto assets. The platform stated on social media X:
Hyblock's backtesting of this signal shows that whenever TRA exceeds 75%, the seven-day average and median forward returns for SOL increase from about +2.25% to over +5%, while the average drawdown decreases. Further analysis points out that during this period, the risk-reward ratio (RR) nearly doubles, with stronger upward continuation and lower downside volatility.
Crypto analyst Darkfost also holds an optimistic view, believing that altcoins are generally stopping losses and are in a potential accumulation phase. The trader noted that currently only 10% of altcoins listed on Binance are still above the 200-day moving average, reflecting widespread market panic and low interest. Historical data shows that such a situation often precedes a market rebound.
Darkfost stated, "The best time to gain exposure to altcoin positions is usually when no one is paying attention to them," emphasizing that similar situations have occurred in previous cycles, ultimately leading to strong short-term rebounds.
Currently, corporate digital asset vaults are actively positioning themselves while SOL is below $200. For example, Solana vault company Solmate (NASDAQ: SLMT) purchased $50 million worth of SOL from the Solana Foundation at a 15% discount. ARK Invest has also disclosed a new holding of 11.5% shares. Solmate previously raised $300 million for digital asset vault construction.
Meanwhile, vault company SOL Strategies (NASDAQ: STKE) acquired 88,433 SOL, including 79,000 locked SOL purchased from the foundation at an average price of $193.93, increasing their total holdings to 523,433 SOL. These actions indicate that institutions are actively accumulating SOL at the current price level.
Although SOL's long-term outlook remains constructive, its recent decline and daily close below $190 mark the first bearish structural breakout since February, indicating a potential momentum shift on higher time frames.
Despite SOL briefly reclaiming its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), it is currently trading between the 50-day and 100-day EMA. This compression typically reflects indecision, with weakened short-term momentum while mid-term support holds, often signaling larger directional moves.
Traders may continue to bid below $200, but a rapid recovery may be limited. However, SOL has recently retested the long-term demand zone from $190 to $170, which may have absorbed early buy orders during the flash crash on October 10.
If bullish momentum does not strengthen in the coming days, SOL may consolidate from $200 to $160.
Despite the weak short-term trend, market analyst Pelin Ay noted that whale order activity for SOL has increased again, a trend that historically often indicates a price increase of 40% to 70%. The analyst stated that whales are positioning themselves ahead of the spot SOL ETF decision on Thursday, which may further drive spot demand.
Combined with SOL's high staking rate and the potential for inclusion in multiple listed indices, if the ETF approval results are favorable, market supply may tighten, and SOL is expected to stabilize above $200 again.
Related: Analysts say "Uptober" is still expected to materialize after last week's significant liquidation event.
Original: “Data shows 76% of retail traders are long on Solana, will a rebound to $200 hold?”
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