Recently, PayPay, the Japanese payment giant under SoftBank, officially acquired 40% of Binance Japan's shares.
Zhao Changpeng also released a photo of himself with Masayoshi Son.
Upon seeing this news, two thoughts immediately came to my mind:
First, Masayoshi Son has finally entered the crypto ecosystem.
Second, I recalled the story from years ago when Masayoshi Son bought Bitcoin and then sold it all during a bear market shortly after.
That was at the end of 2017, when ICOs were booming and Bitcoin was reaching its historical peak at that time. Masayoshi Son bought Bitcoin at around $20,000. However, shortly after, in early 2018, when Bitcoin plummeted, he sold it.
As a result, the industry widely discussed how Masayoshi Son lost $130 million on that investment. The reports were filled with sarcasm and ridicule.
At that time, my view was:
On one hand, I believed that Masayoshi Son's understanding of Bitcoin was not as good as that of players in the crypto ecosystem, so his handling of that trade not only failed to make money but also resulted in a loss, which was quite normal.
On the other hand, I was curious or quite puzzled—this investment in Bitcoin represented only a small part of Masayoshi Son's asset allocation. The gains or losses from this money would not significantly impact his overall revenue, so why did he have to sell? Couldn't he just hold onto it without paying attention?
After all these years, looking back at my previous two views, I still largely maintain the first view. However, I no longer see the second view the same way.
The reason might be quite simple:
If one does not understand or does not have confidence in something, they will not touch it. Holding onto something one does not understand or does not believe in can often lead to discomfort and anxiety, which feels very unpleasant. If one is going to invest, they should either invest all their money in something they believe in or understand, or simply keep cash on hand waiting for opportunities.
Over the years, there have been several assets that I have bought or even held for a period of time. When I was optimistic about them, I could indeed hold onto them; but once I lost confidence, they became a source of great worry, and only by selling them could I regain my peace of mind and set out to find new opportunities.
As for the first point, Masayoshi Son's understanding of Bitcoin may not be as good as that of some players in the crypto ecosystem, so he might not grasp the logic behind Bitcoin's future rise. This becomes easier to understand when considering his current investment in Binance Japan.
In terms of viewing Bitcoin, Masayoshi Son's perspective may be very similar to that of Buffett, Munger, and Duan Yongping: they are not interested in things that do not generate cash flow.
Bitcoin and gold are both assets that do not generate cash flow.
Buffett, Munger, and Duan Yongping do not hold gold. I checked online, and it seems there are no public reports indicating that SoftBank holds gold either.
By this analogy, it is not surprising that Masayoshi Son sold Bitcoin; similarly, it is also easy to understand why he invested in Binance Japan.
Because Binance Japan is an exchange. Partnering with the largest exchange can yield substantial intermediary fees, and in the future, it can expand into other ecosystems based on crypto assets. This is a business with stable cash flow and a clear business model. Moreover, with the recent regulatory developments in the U.S. and Japan preparing to relax regulations on crypto asset trading, entering Japan's crypto ecosystem at this time holds great potential and business opportunities worth looking forward to.
From all aspects, this is a business worth investing in.
In the photo released by Zhao Changpeng, a beaming Masayoshi Son is shyly smiling—this time, he has truly entered a crypto track that he believes in and understands.
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