Ethereum ETFs have opened for access, but capital flows remain cyclical.
Solana's infrastructure is ready: CME futures have launched, and options are scheduled to debut on October 13 (pending approval).
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's general standards now allow for faster listings of spot commodity ETPs beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.
For Solana to surpass Ethereum, it needs sustained creation, tight hedging, real on-chain usage, and continuous developer momentum.
Ethereum (ETH) has taken a lead in the ETF race: the spot Ethereum ETF will be listed on July 23, 2024, with a first-day net inflow of approximately $107 million, providing mainstream investment channels for investors through brokers and retirement accounts.
Solana (SOL) is also accelerating the improvement of its market infrastructure. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) will launch Solana futures on March 17, 2025, with options expected to go live on October 13.
In September 2025, the SEC simplified the process for listing spot commodity ETPs through the "general listing standards," which is expected to broaden the listing paths beyond Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum.
Additionally, outside the U.S., SOL has been traded through compliant investment products from Europe’s 21Shares and Canada’s 3iQ.
Against the backdrop of these market access achievements, the key question is whether the U.S. SOL ETF can stimulate sustained demand, allowing Solana to surpass Ethereum in price and fundamentals.
Before exploring this question, let's outline the relevant background.
The U.S. spot Ethereum ETF will be listed on July 23, 2024, with a trading volume of about $1 billion on the first day and a net inflow of approximately $107 million, opening new channels for mainstream investors such as registered investment advisors (RIAs) and institutions. However, the scale is still lower than the performance of the Bitcoin ETF when it launched in January.
Subsequently, capital flows exhibited cyclical fluctuations. By mid-2025, ETH experienced alternating phases of net purchases and capital outflows. By the end of August and mid-September, reports indicated that Ethereum products achieved several weeks of consecutive net inflows, boosting the total assets under management (AUM) in crypto assets. In short, ETFs enhanced market access but did not eliminate market cycles.
During 2025, Ethereum outperformed most mainstream crypto assets, supported by stable ETF demand and continuous inflows from institutions and enterprises. This pattern indicates that while ETFs did not change the underlying network fundamentals, they could influence leading assets during capital rotation periods.
One design choice remains important: the U.S. Ethereum ETF launched without a staking feature, limiting its yield potential compared to directly holding ETH. The SEC is actively reviewing related staking proposals, but as of October 2025, it has postponed decisions for several issuers. If the staking feature is approved, even partially, the trade-offs between ETF holdings and direct holdings will change.
Fun fact: U.S. exchanges publish the indicative net asset value (iNAV) of ETFs approximately every 15 seconds, helping traders assess ETF pricing in real-time.
In the second quarter of 2025, Solana achieved $271 million in network revenue, leading all layer 1 (L1) and layer 2 (L2) blockchains for the third consecutive quarter. In June, data showed that the number of monthly active addresses on Solana was on par with the total of other mainstream L1 and L2s, indicating significant usage intensity.
In January 2025, Solana processed 59.2 billion peer-to-peer (P2P) stablecoin transfers, rebounding significantly from the low at the end of 2024. The USDC supply on Solana was approximately $9.35 billion, and the total supply of stablecoins on the network doubled at the beginning of 2025, increasing from $5.2 billion in January to $11.7 billion in February.
Even so, Ethereum still carried most of the value transferred by stablecoins from the beginning of the year to mid-2025—about 60%—indicating that Solana's growth is meaningful but not yet dominant.
Cost and speed remain key attractions: fees below one cent, a block time of 400 milliseconds, and high throughput make Solana a hub for decentralized exchanges (DEX) and perpetual futures activities—also the focus of the meme coin craze in 2025. This trading volume supports liquidity but also concentrates it in speculative areas.
First, there is reliability risk. On February 6, 2024, the Solana network experienced a five-hour outage, requiring coordination for a restart and client update (v1.17.20).
Second, there is regulatory risk. The U.S. SEC has accused Solana of being an unregistered security, which the Solana Foundation denies, and the outcome will depend on future policy directions.
Fun fact: CME plans to offer daily, monthly, and quarterly expiration options for SOL options, enriching the hedging tools for ETF market makers.
Market access and capital flows: Once approved, SOL will enter mainstream brokerage and retirement account channels such as registered investment advisors (RIAs), reducing the difficulty of allocation operations and expanding the buyer base beyond crypto-native trading platforms.
Market making and hedging: Listed derivatives provide authorized participants (APs) and market makers with tools to hedge ETF share purchases and redemptions, supporting basis and relative value trading, helping to keep ETF prices close to net asset value (NAV) and enhancing first-day liquidity.
Regulatory pathways: The SEC's "general listing standards" have broadened the listing paths for ETFs beyond BTC and ETH, as long as issuers comply with the regulations.
Overseas demand signals: Canada’s 3iQ Solana Staking ETF (TSX: SOLQ) and Europe’s 21Shares Solana Staking ETP (SIX: ASOL) have shown that compliant investment products for Solana can attract investor attention.
Fun fact: In Europe, cryptocurrencies cannot be included in transferable securities collective investment schemes (UCITS) ETFs, which is why issuers use ETPs, and this is also the reason for the appearance of "ETP" in the codes of SIX and the London Stock Exchange (LSE).
A timely U.S. spot SOL ETF, accompanied by strong early net creation, could potentially outperform Ethereum in total returns.
Two key levers:
Wider access: RIAs and brokers gain exposure under the new general listing standards.
Improved market mechanisms: With CME Solana futures and listed options, APs face smaller spreads and greater capacity when hedging.
Even if the SOL ETF launches strongly, capital flows may revert to tracking general risk preferences. Ethereum retains structural institutional advantages—thanks to its longer history, deeper familiarity among allocators, and established ecosystem. Weekly capital flow fluctuations in cryptocurrencies reflect that relative performance may be volatile rather than clearly favoring SOL.
Delays in the timeline or qualification issues under the SEC framework could dampen expectations. Alternatively, liquidity may weaken; despite the availability of derivatives, APs may narrow their books, limiting creation. In this scenario, Solana would underperform Ethereum, which has already benefited from a more mature distribution.
It is also worth noting that some regulators have expressed concerns about reducing case-by-case reviews under the general listing standards, adding policy uncertainty for assets beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.
If the U.S. spot SOL ETF is approved, subsequent performance will be the focus of attention.
Key signals include: whether ETF share purchases and redemptions continue to show demand, whether CME open interest and options trading activity enhance liquidity, and whether on-chain active users, fee income, stablecoin settlements, and developer growth can remain stable beyond speculative frenzies. If multiple indicators improve simultaneously, the probability of SOL surpassing Ethereum will significantly increase.
The Solana ETF is expected to break major market access barriers, and its infrastructure is more robust than in previous cycles. However, Ethereum has already attracted billions in funding through its ETF and has become a core asset of institutional interest.
Ethereum remains the industry benchmark, and its capital flows—though cyclical—demonstrate lasting appeal. Whether Solana can truly surpass Ethereum hinges on whether ETF capital flows can translate into sustained on-chain applications, rather than just market speculation.
Related: U.S. Senate passes the GAIN Act, prioritizing domestic AI and HPC chip sales
Original article: “Can Solana (SOL) Outperform Ethereum (ETH) If ETFs Get Approved?”
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