The difficult path is never crowded; it is lonely and desolate. The easy path is filled with people; it is comfortable and easy. Many things we do may not show results right now, but do not be afraid, do not deny that you have only walked half of your life. Every step in life has its unique significance.
The market conditions in the early morning have likely kept many people awake. Last night, when I came across a post from Old Te regarding new actions on tariff trade, I thought the market would experience another downturn. Once this news came out, the market began to decline, albeit slowly at first, and then in the early morning, it faced a significant drop. Bitcoin saw a decline of around 20,000 points, and altcoins fared even worse. Capital took advantage of this news to complete a round of deleveraging. Anyone who leveraged yesterday, even just 1x, would find many altcoins liquidated. Recently, whether it was the previous rise or this drop, capital has been using news to drive market trends. We had originally reduced our long positions in Bitcoin for profit, but what remained also faced liquidation. However, this was much better than operating with altcoins. I have emphasized before the attitude towards market operations: for short-term trades, focus on contracts, executing take-profit and stop-loss orders. Short-term contract operations do not depend on whether the market is bullish or bearish; both can be traded. For spot trading, we have only been dollar-cost averaging into a few top-ranked coins for a long time, and doing so means we do not need to overly concern ourselves with market conditions. Speaking of which, looking at the long-term cycle of Bitcoin, it seems that Bitcoin has always been in a bull market.
Returning to today's market, the liquidity aspect does not hold much significance today. With this wave of decline, there is basically no bullish liquidity left; liquidations have been thorough. The bullish liquidity above 100,000 has taken a heavy hit, and those still holding long positions are mostly using less than 5x leverage without stop-losses. After this large fluctuation, the bulls currently have no plans to re-enter the market in the short term. The main concern now is the remaining bearish liquidity above, including those who shorted after the drop and those who opened positions earlier, mainly concentrated around the price movements from 10 PM to 12 AM last night. The current market is quite unstable, and liquidity will need to wait for subsequent consolidation before new liquidity appears, which will help us judge the market sentiment—whether it is leaning bullish or bearish.
On the technical side, the daily chart was originally at a high level. For the past two days, I have been saying that a reversal was expected, but I did not anticipate it would happen so quickly. The market indeed experienced a violent drop driven by news, and the daily chart has successfully returned to a low position. After the daily close, a large bearish candle with a long lower shadow was left, and the current market has returned to the previous round's low point. Today is Saturday, during the US market holiday phase, and after such a large fluctuation, it is highly likely that a consolidation process will occur. Currently, the MACD technical indicator has entered a bearish cycle, and after a significant drop, according to general operating rules, the bearish trend will likely continue for a while. We should wait until next week to see if the trend becomes more apparent.
On the four-hour chart, the trend is not looking good. I mentioned yesterday that the market has been in a bearish cycle for a long time. Previously, I did not foresee such an extreme drop occurring in the early morning. The hope was for a rebound to repair the technical indicators before aligning with the daily bearish expectations to initiate a downward trend. However, with this wave of decline, the daily bearish expectation has directly manifested, while the four-hour chart continues to show increased bearish volume. Under this trend, if there is a subsequent consolidation, we will need to repair the four-hour technical indicators before continuing to adjust.
In terms of operations, I suggest focusing on short-term trades today, with quick entries and exits. In the short term, approach it with a consolidation mindset: go long if it breaks below 111,000 with a stop-loss, and go short above 115,000 for short-term operations. Adjust operations based on real-time market changes.
【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks yourself. The article is subject to review and publication, and market conditions change in real-time, so the information may be outdated. Specific operations should follow real-time strategies. Feel free to contact and discuss the market.】
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