Key Points:
Bitcoin has maintained a range above $120,000 after experiencing an 8% leveraged liquidation in the futures market.
Increased spot demand and a decrease in open interest indicate a recovery in buyer confidence.
The MVRV ratio suggests an upside potential of 15% to 25%, targeting $140,000 to $150,000 by the end of the fourth quarter.
Bitcoin (BTC) continues to fluctuate within the $120,000 to $125,000 range after a significant but orderly leveraged exit in the futures market. This indicates that traders are viewing $120,000 as an important demand zone in the short term.
According to market analyst Skew, Bitcoin's recent rebound from the $120,000 level highlights the buy orders in that range. Binance's spot market data shows an increase in cumulative volume difference (CVD) near $120,000, reflecting a recovery in spot buying demand.
Meanwhile, the perpetual contract market has also seen buy orders clustering around the same level, with a decrease in open interest, indicating that short positions are being liquidated as prices rebound.
These factors suggest that the market is likely to form a new short-term "value zone" around $123,000. However, selling pressure may be more pronounced above this range.
On-chain indicators support this consolidation view. Analyst Maartunn observed that short-term holders are close to breaking even in terms of profits and losses, slightly leaning towards profit. 24,100 Bitcoins have entered exchanges at a profit, while 19,700 are at a loss.
Additionally, Binance data shows that the recent pullback has been particularly marked by leveraged adjustments. The exchange's Bitcoin open contracts have dropped from a high of $15.07 billion on October 6 to $13.88 billion, a decrease of 7.9% within three days.
This contraction in leverage typically indicates that the market is cautiously repositioning rather than fully retreating, potentially laying the groundwork for a more sustainable rise after new capital enters.
Despite the short-term trend being primarily consolidation, analysts remain generally optimistic about Bitcoin's performance by year-end. Market strategist Timo Oinonen points out that the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value ratio) is a key indicator for assessing potential upside. The MVRV metric compares Bitcoin's current market value to its realized value, measuring whether the asset is overvalued or undervalued relative to the cost basis of holders.
Oinonen states that the current Bitcoin MVRV indicates that under basic scenarios, prices are expected to rise by 15% to 25% by the end of the fourth quarter, reaching $140,000 to $150,000, supported by continued accumulation from long-term holders and a solid short-term cost basis.
In a more optimistic scenario, if the MVRV rises above 4.0 and replicates the 2021 cycle trend, Bitcoin could challenge $170,000 to $200,000, driven by heightened market sentiment and tightening supply post-halving.
Related: Bitcoin falls below $120,000, pessimistic data triggers a 10% price drop warning
Original: “Analyst Says Bitcoin Price Likely to Rise to $150,000 After BTC Anchors to a High-Value Area”
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