Written by: Haotian

Discussing several insights on the future evolution of perp dex:

1) The "digital game" of washing trading for airdrop expectations won't last.

If a large number of users engage in wash trading for airdrop expectations rather than genuinely using the product, if professional arbitrageurs low-costly strip away most of the incentive budget, and if project teams tacitly allow or even encourage these behaviors for better data presentation.

Over time, the entire points system will turn into an expectation game with no real value creation linked to it, and there will always be a day when the bubble bursts;

2) The low fee war between platforms has users' "hidden buy orders."

The internal competition between platforms will compress the "revenue model" to the extreme, but what is the value capture balance point for maintaining zero fees? If what seems like "zero fees" actually incurs losses in areas like liquidation penalties and funding rates that users cannot see or do not care about, this approach will ultimately be unsustainable.

Either sell PFOF to market makers like Robinhood, or become a broker providing value-added services; these require long-term iterative product capabilities to succeed;

3) The CLOB-dominated perp dex boom is merely an on-chain carnival.

Perp dex is not a new species, but this wave of trillion-level false prosperity is more about the volume generated by Crypto Native assets like BTC and ETH. In the future, as TrdfFi assets shift on-chain, such as truly demanded stocks, foreign exchange, and commodities, the CLOB's full-chain order book model may not be effective, and instead, Oracle or RFQ models may be more efficient.

The question arises: should we embrace traditional incremental assets in advance, or spend $100,000 to purchase CLOB Dex code to engage in incentive wars? It will be clear who is truly creating value.

4) High valuations supported by a black-box execution layer cannot be effectively verified.

Although some perp dex claim their differentiation, massive trading data and hidden black-box technology cannot truly price in high valuations. If users do not know how orders are processed, where liquidity comes from, or how prices are formed, and if the so-called "optimal execution" is actually profiting from user MEV and relying on information asymmetry, this is not a true technological moat.

Using zk proof to demonstrate logic is correct, but whether real-time order tracking, order data metrics, and technical means can withstand market tests is crucial;

5) Perp dex as a Service will dilute the overall value of the entire sector.

If everyone is doing CLOB, supporting similar trading pairs, using maker/taker fees, and having points systems, if the only differences are a better UI, higher airdrop expectations, and more aggressive KOL shilling, the overall value of the entire Perp DEX sector will be severely diluted over time.

Should we continue to "one-click launch chains" and engage in internal competition, or truly address user pain points and establish differentiation? The former will only lead the entire sector into a death spiral, while the latter may allow for the emergence of truly valuable projects.

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