Economist Timothy Peterson stated that based on simulations using data from the past decade, the probability of Bitcoin breaking through $140,000 this month is 50%.
Peterson posted on the X platform on Wednesday, saying, "The probability of Bitcoin closing above $140,000 this month is 50%. However, the probability of Bitcoin closing below $136,000 is 43%."
According to CoinMarketCap data, Bitcoin is currently priced at $122,032, needing to rise about 14.7% to reach $140,000. The price has retreated after the original cryptocurrency set a historical high of $126,200 on Monday.
Peterson indicated that the simulations show "half of Bitcoin's increase in October may have already been realized." He told Cointelegraph that the simulation used daily price data of Bitcoin since 2015 to model market behavior over time.
Peterson stated that the prediction is based on "hundreds of simulations grounded in pure real data, rather than human emotions or biased opinions."
"Each prediction follows the same logic, with price changes matching Bitcoin's true history, repetitive fluctuations, and rhythm," he added.
Bitcoin opened at around $116,500 on October 1, and rising to $140,000 would represent a 20.17% increase for the month, which is very close to Bitcoin's historical average performance in October.
According to CoinGlass data, October has been the second-best month for Bitcoin's average performance since 2013, with a typical increase of 20.75%.
Peterson claims that the prediction avoids the "bias and noise" that affect short-term sentiment.
"The result is a clear, probability-based picture of where Bitcoin's value is most likely headed," he said.
However, Bitcoin has deviated from broader market expectations multiple times over the years, failing to follow past patterns, even when data indicates otherwise with high confidence.
Other cryptocurrency analysts expect Bitcoin prices to rise after the cryptocurrency retreated following its historical high on Monday.
Cryptocurrency analyst Jelle posted on the X platform on Tuesday, stating that Bitcoin is retesting previous historical highs and may rise. "The bears are absolutely done. Push it up," Jelle said.
Echoing similar sentiments, cryptocurrency analyst Matthew Hyland posted on the X platform the same day, stating, "Pressure is building."
However, Peterson emphasized that "the market is not random in the short term."
"They are cyclical in terms of liquidity, sentiment, and positions. October is historically significant because it marks a turning point in the institutional capital cycle: the end of third-quarter portfolio rebalancing, the beginning of fund fiscal year planning, and the approach of year-end reporting windows," he explained.
Related: India criticizes "unbacked cryptocurrencies" in central bank's new digital currency plan
Original article: “Economist: ‘Hundreds of simulations’ show Bitcoin (BTC) has a 50% chance of reaching $140,000 this month”
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