Stablecoins could siphon $1 trillion in deposits away from banks in emerging markets in the "next three years or so," wrote Standard Chartered analysts in a note shared with Decrypt.

"While the recently passed U.S. GENIUS Act aims to mitigate deposit flight by prohibiting U.S.-compliant stablecoin issuers from paying direct yields, stablecoins are still likely to be adopted even in the absence of yield—as return of capital matters more than return on capital," wrote Standard Chartered Global Head of Digital Assets Research Geoff Kendrick and Global Head Economist and Head of Thematic Research Madhur Jha.

In other words, the analysts think depositors in emerging markets care more about knowing they'll retain access to their money than earning interest on it.



"Given weakness on several metrics, we see a relatively high risk that deposits in Egypt, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka will flow into stablecoins as local depositors seek an external store of value," Kendrick and Jha wrote. "Other countries in this group include Turkey, India, China, Brazil, South Africa and Kenya. Many of them (with the key exception of China) face twin deficits, which may indicate vulnerability."

Crypto has already been part of civil unrest and falling confidence in the economy in Kenya.

In 2024, officials sought to address the country's debt by raising money through taxes, including a 16% sales tax on bread and 25% tax on vegetable oil. As protests broke out, some groups urged citizens to begin using crypto as a way to bypass what they saw as unfair taxation.

Meanwhile, Turkish regulators have responded to growing adoption of crypto by expanding their watchdog powers. And the rising adoption of stablecoins in Asia has been at the center of a political stalemate in India.

Although $1 trillion is a large number, the Standard Chartered analysts pointed out that it represents "just 2% of aggregate deposits in our 'high-vulnerability' countries."

In the U.S., the GENIUS Act tried to mitigate the risk stablecoins could pose to banks by blocking issuers from offering yield. But that hasn't stopped other companies from creating incentives for stablecoin holders.

Coinbase is a USDC distribution partner and major shareholder. And thanks to its agreement with Circle, it has a vested interest in seeing USDC adoption grow. But because Coinbase isn't actually the stablecoin issuer, it can offer users 4.7% in rewards on USDC that's held in Coinbase Wallets. That's already raised some eyebrows at the SEC.

The impact of the GENIUS Act has been dramatic.

At the start of the year, there were about $205 billion worth of stablecoins in circulation, according to data aggregator DeFi Llama. Within the past week, the total market cap for stablecoins has surpassed $302 billion. That kind of rapid growth will need to accelerate in the coming years to fulfill Standard Chartered's projections.

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