Key Points:
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has set a record for SOL open interest at $2.16 billion, indicating a surge in institutional participation.
Retail traders remain cautious after experiencing $307 million in liquidations, with continued low leverage usage.
The managed assets of Solana exchange-traded products (ETPs) have surpassed $500 million, confirming the ongoing trend of institutional accumulation.
Solana (SOL) futures have entered a critical phase: as the SOL price rebounded 23% from a local low of $195 on Friday to $235, the CME open interest (OI) has reached a historical peak of $2.16 billion. Notably, after SOL established a bottom, CME institutional trading volume surged, reflecting that market participants are actively positioning themselves ahead of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) decision on the SOL ETF on October 10.
The CME's annualized basis remains at 16.37%, significantly lower than the peak level of 35% in July, indicating that market sentiment remains optimistic but not overheated. In contrast, during this round of price increases, the open interest on centralized exchanges, primarily driven by retail traders, has grown relatively slowly, with funding rates consistently hovering around neutral territory.
This divergence suggests that while institutions are actively positioning themselves, retail investors remain cautious—a caution likely stemming from the warning effects of the $307 million liquidation event on September 22 (of which $250 million was long positions). Traders seem unwilling to chase prices, making the market less prone to extreme volatility caused by over-leveraging.
From a market structure perspective, a balanced but bullish pattern is currently forming. Institutions are firmly layering their positions, while retail hesitation effectively suppresses the emergence of market bubbles. When SOL hits local lows, CME trading volume surges, indicating that genuine strong capital is accumulating on dips rather than engaging in speculative sell-offs.
Meanwhile, the inflow of funds into Solana exchange-traded products (ETPs) further confirms institutional allocation intentions. This week, the managed assets of Solana ETPs surpassed the $500 million milestone, with the Solana Staking ETF (SSK) issued by REXShares leading with over $400 million, while the Bitwise Solana Staking ETP (BSOL) also crossed the $100 million mark. This milestone highlights the rapid growth of BSOL and SSK since their launch and reflects the accelerating trend of allocating Solana assets through compliant financial instruments.
The short-term direction of SOL depends on whether retail confidence can be restored. In a bearish scenario, a price pullback to the $218-$210 range would not disrupt the overall bullish structure, as it would retest the fair value gap (FVG) on the four-hour chart while touching the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA) support.
The liquidation heatmap simultaneously shows a dense liquidity cluster exceeding $200 million in the $220-$200 range, which could form a price attraction zone. If the price retraces to this range and establishes a healthy higher low, it would allow for the influx of funds during the later stages of liquidation while maintaining the overall bullish market structure.
In a bullish scenario, if the price strongly breaks through the $245-$250 resistance zone, it would release bullish signals, potentially pushing SOL towards the historical high of $290. Considering the flow of institutional funds, if the expectation of ETF approval continues to be a market focus, the probability of this scenario occurring will significantly increase.
Regardless of the trend that emerges, the restrained attitude of retail leverage is beneficial for SOL, effectively reducing the downside risk caused by cascading liquidations. The more solid the institutions' dominance in CME open interest, the more likely any pullback will exhibit shallow adjustment characteristics rather than a trend reversal.
Currently, the SOL futures market is depicting a transition from panic sentiment to cautious accumulation, with institutional investors consistently playing a leading role.
This article does not contain any investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading activities carry risks, and readers should conduct thorough research before making decisions.
Related: The UK is preparing to lift the ban on crypto ETNs, with several companies expressing their views.
Original: “Solana ETP inflows exceed $500 million, CME open interest surges, will SOL reach new highs?”
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