Despite the Bitcoin Treasury Company accumulating $1.2 billion in BTC purchases last week, analysts suggest that the new all-time high for Bitcoin is more likely driven by inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Bitcoin continued to rise over the weekend, reaching a new all-time high of over $125,000 on Saturday.
The Bitcoin Treasury Company purchased a total of over 6,702 BTC in the past week, led by the Japanese investment firm Metaplanet, which increased its holdings by 5,258 BTC on October 1.
In contrast, the spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $3.24 billion last week, nearly matching the record set in November 2024.
Vincent Liu, Chief Investment Officer of quantitative trading firm Kronos Research, told Cointelegraph that the rise in Bitcoin prices was triggered by ETF inflows.
He added that other factors also played a role, such as "tight exchange supply, a weakening dollar, and macro uncertainty. Strong institutional demand further reinforced the bullish momentum over the weekend."
This year, the pace of institutional Bitcoin purchases has outstripped miners' output. Miners produce about 900 BTC daily on average, while a report from financial services firm River in September indicated that corporations acquire an average of 1,755 BTC daily, and ETFs purchase an average of 1,430 BTC daily, leading to tight Bitcoin supply.
Analysts at the Bitfinex exchange predicted in August that the approval of new crypto ETFs could trigger a new cycle or rally in altcoins, providing investors with lower-risk token exposure.
Crypto analyst and trader Will Clemente III also noted in a post on X on Sunday that ETF inflows are a catalyst for Bitcoin's recent rise.
He stated, "There may be one last pullback, but the most bullish aspect of this Bitcoin rise is that it is not driven by treasury companies or perpetual contract traders, but by spot ETF purchases—likely macro funds and asset management companies viewing Bitcoin as a rotating asset from commodities and small-cap stocks."
Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas also mentioned that Bitcoin's new all-time high came after "frenzied inflows into ETFs exceeding $3.3 billion last week, totaling $24 billion for the year."
Inflows into Bitcoin ETFs are likely to become a catalyst for further increases by the end of the year.
Liu pointed out that the outlook for Bitcoin in the fourth quarter will be determined by "institutional adoption, supply contraction, and macro tailwinds, with its role as a hedge against fiat currency devaluation providing support. Reduced liquidity and ETF inflows will drive price increases and volatility."
He added, "Future Bitcoin gains may depend on institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, exchange balances dropping to six-year lows leading to supply tightening, and a supportive macro environment with low interest rates."
Michael Saylor, Executive Director and Bitcoin bull, also predicted in September that Bitcoin could gain upward momentum again by the end of the year, thanks to the continued increase in corporate and institutional interest.
According to Bitbo data, ETFs hold over 1.5 million BTC, valued at $188 billion, accounting for 7.2% of the total supply.
Meanwhile, corporate Bitcoin treasury holdings have exceeded 1.4 million BTC, accounting for 6.6% of the total supply, with a market value of over $166 billion.
Related: Report: Blockchain Network Revenue Declined 16% in September
Original: “Bitcoin Institutions Increased Holdings by $1.2 Billion Last Week, but BTC ETF is More Noteworthy”
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