Strategy (MSTR) will post a profit for the second quarter in a row in the third quarter thanks to a rise in the price of bitcoin (BTC). That would again qualify the company for potential S&P 500 inclusion.

According to Jeff Walton, Chief Risk Officer of Strive, Strategy will have earned about $2.9 billion, or $10 per share thanks to bitcoin's move from about the $107,000 level to $114,000 at quarter's end. Over the past four quarters, MSTR will have earned roughly $22.80 per share.

The analysis factors in an estimated deferred tax liability of $970 million, leaving a net income estimated at $2.9 billion. The analysis concludes with an estimated trailing twelve-month earnings per share (EPS) of $22.8, reflecting positive EPS in Q2 and an estimated positive EPS in Q3 2025 ($32.6 and $10.1, respectively) which offset negative results in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025.

While positive trailing twelve-month EPS is one requirement for S&P 500 inclusion, other criteria include a positive latest quarter, more than 50% public float, and average daily trading volume above 250,000 shares — all of which MSTR has. The S&P 500 committee, though, is under no requirement to add a company just because it meets those criteria.

The fourth quarter 2025 S&P 500 rebalancing is scheduled to take effect after the market closes on Dec. 19.

STRC Increased Dividend Rate

Beyond potential S&P 500 inclusion, Strategy increased its dividend rate on its perpetual preferred stock STRC from 10% to 10.25% and declared cash dividends payable Oct. 31, with guidance that rates will be evaluated using the five-day VWAP of STRC prior to the final trading day of each month, according to analyst Ben Werkman. STRC currently priced at $97 (within the $95 to $98.99 band), this resulted in a 25 basis point increase, and Strategy has indicated it will continue raising the rate to bring STRC closer to its $100 par value.

MSTR shares are higher by 2.9% premarket alongside a 3% rise in the price of bitcoin to $116,700.

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