Key Summary:
The total trading volume of SOL shows that retail traders have been buying significant amounts of spot positions as SOL rebounded from $190.
Traders may be positioning themselves ahead of a favorable Solana ETF decision expected from the SEC on October 10.
The price of SOL (SOL) rose to $213 on Monday, with an increase of nearly 12% over three days, indicating that traders viewed the recent drop to $190.85 as a low-price buying opportunity. With the SEC expected to make a final decision on the Solana ETF before October 10, the SOL price chart shows that traders are keen to position themselves early, potentially driving SOL prices to new highs in the next two weeks.
Below is a brief analysis of the current market dynamics for SOL.
Bitcoin (BTC) and the entire cryptocurrency market experienced a sell-off last Monday. According to the cumulative trading volume difference between Binance spot and futures, retail traders on Binance (holding between 100 to 1000 coins) actively bought during the decline. Coinbase institutional investors (holding between 10,000 to 10 million coins) also showed a similar trend in spot CVD.
Further evidence of retail investor demand for SOL is provided by the real retail long-short account indicator from Hyblock, which tracks the ratio of long to short positions held by Binance retail accounts, rising from 54.3 to 78.2 at the peak of the sell-off.
As retail traders build long positions, the total order book buy-sell difference for Solana (10% order book depth) has risen to 0.47, indicating a bias towards buyers. The cumulative trading volume difference over four hours further shows that the retail group is actively buying SOL, with recent four-hour trading volume reaching $71.98 million.
In addition to the recent rebound in daily price performance, ahead of the October 10 Solana ETF decision, bullish traders betting on SOL reaching new highs should pay attention to the total open contracts of SOL on centralized exchanges, as well as CME open contracts and CME futures trading volume.
If SOL can return to the annual high of $253 reached on September 18 in the next two weeks, it is expected to build upward momentum. The open interest for SOL in CME futures reached $2.12 billion on September 18, with CME futures trading volume at $1.57 billion. According to Velo.xyz data from September 26, these figures are currently $1.72 billion and $400 million, respectively.
Currently, the total open contracts for SOL are below the levels seen before the annual high, when open interest peaked at $3.65 billion.
Another indicator worth noting is the cumulative returns of SOL across different trading sessions, especially during the U.S. session, as the final decision on the spot ETF is awaited. As shown in the chart below, cumulative returns during the U.S. session have turned positive since Friday.
Ideally, if SOL becomes a high-sticky rotational trade for traders positioning ahead of the ETF decision, cumulative returns during the Asia-Pacific and European sessions should also rise in sync, maintaining alignment with the trends in the U.S. trading session.
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Original article: “SOL Traders Buy Ahead of SEC Solana ETF Decision: Is $250 Back on the Table?”
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