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Recently, I've been paying attention to the US stock market every night during the US trading hours. To be honest, the US market is killing valuations, while in our crypto circle, we are killing leverage. My feeling has become increasingly strong after observing these past few days.

I mentioned last week before the interest rate cut that there might be a wave of selling the facts, but this time the selling exceeded my expectations, as the market directly wiped out the leverage completely. However, from another perspective, no pain, no gain; after this wave of liquidation, there will be a real opportunity for a rebound.

Currently, the economy hasn't collapsed, and the labor market is slowly softening. The remaining key contradiction is the trend of inflation, which will determine the pace of the Federal Reserve's future interest rate cuts.

There is already a consensus that there will be a rate cut in September, but the subsequent path is still uncertain. Tonight's PCE, along with October's non-farm payrolls and CPI, will all readjust market expectations.

Returning to the market, the Bitcoin futures market has basically exhausted the long liquidity that was built up during the previous rebound. Now, only the liquidity zone around the old low of 107k remains, and the next thing to watch is whether the current price will fill the gap to 107k.

If the market continues to hover around 108.5k to 108.7k in the next few days, it may attract new liquidity to emerge. But if the rebound comes quickly, the liquidation zone below may not be touched in the short term.

Because 107k is the bottom line of the entire large range, the market usually needs to liquidate extreme points, indicating that this round of range is nearing its end. My expectation is that Bitcoin may need to oscillate above 107k for a while before deciding whether to break down.

In simple terms, the market is likely to grind for a while, waiting for the gap to be filled before making any decisions. Bears hoping for a massive crash will have to hold back, and the bulls are indeed running out of fuel.

Looking at the smaller scale, since September 22, Bitcoin has hit the short-term holders' realization price five times in a row. Early yesterday morning, it was finally smashed through by a sharp spike, and now the current price is even lower than that.

The short holding realization price is currently around 111.6k. The last time it hovered around that price at the end of August, it took four days to rebound. This time, however, it broke through directly and confirmed the close.

According to my consistent view, this thing's support ability is not that strong. It's normal for it not to hold. The mid-term target should at least see 107.2k. In other words, the defense battle for the short holding price has begun again, and whether it can hold will depend on the market.

As for Ethereum, it has rebounded, but the trading volume is pitifully small, relying entirely on the chips from exploded contracts to pull it up, with 90% being bulls. Since Ethereum took off from 1385 on April 9 to a high of 4957, it has gone through five waves of adjustments.

The first three times only had about 15% retracement, but this time it finally got a bit harsh. From the highest point, it has retraced 23%, and from the second highest point, it has also retraced 20%, with the RSI crashing to 13, almost at the historical extreme of overselling.

Based on the historical maximum drop of 27%, there is less than 10% of downward space left, roughly between 3480 and 3610. In other words, if bears want to enjoy themselves, there isn't much profit left.

At this point, some may be wondering if the bull market is really over. To conclude, I believe it is not over. The weekly top divergence in Bitcoin does exist, but that is a standard feature of the latter half of a bull market and does not mean an immediate collapse. High-level oscillations dragging on for a few months, or even multiple top divergences, are normal.

However, just because the bull is not dead does not mean that altcoins can make a comeback. In the current interest rate environment, without ETFs or backing from coin stocks, trash altcoins are just live targets. What should we buy at the bottom? ETH first; both BTC and total market cap have shown top divergences, while only ETH's structure remains relatively healthy.

Regardless of USDT or Bitcoin, it still has at least one wave of weekly-level upward movement. Moreover, the average cost of large funds is between 3600 and 4000, and they are all pressed here, so there will definitely be a push for a market movement!

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Level Reference:

Second Resistance Level: 110900

First Resistance Level: 110000

Support Level Reference:

First Support Level: 108900

Second Support Level: 107600

After Bitcoin broke below 110K, it is still on a downward path. It has now completely entered a downtrend, and until a decent rebound occurs, bears continue to hold the upper hand. As for the so-called technical rebound in the oversold range, it can be used for very short-term trades, but don't expect too much profit.

For the short term, consider 108.9K as a temporary low point; it rebounded from here once. However, if it is broken again, the N-shaped decline will continue, with the target directly seeing 107.6K.

Although the RSI is in the oversold zone, theoretically, there could be a rebound opportunity. The problem is that the continuous decline has shattered a bunch of supports, turning them into significant pressures, so don't expect the market to pull back all at once.

110K was support yesterday, but now it has become resistance. If it can break through 110K, then it might test 110.9K or even 111K. But don't forget, to flip it, we need to see continuous higher lows in the smaller time frame; otherwise, it will be in vain.

The first resistance at 110K is crucial; if it can reclaim half of the large bearish candle, then the short-term rebound can be considered solid. If it can't even reclaim 50%, then the bears will laugh last. The second resistance at 110.9K has a psychological barrier flavor, and there is only a chance to break through 110K first.

The first support at 108.9K is where this wave of rebound started. If it can't hold, it indicates that the rebound is completely over, and we should be ready for a sharp drop at any time.

The second support at 107.6K, if it really drops here, we can expect another short-term rebound. But at that time, it would only be for a small rebound, so don't think about bottom fishing.

Today, we can consider 108.9K as short-term support. If it rebounds, wait to short in the upper resistance zone; the bearish mindset still dominates the entire market. The RSI is indeed in the oversold zone, but don't be misled; the market is still in a downtrend.

9.26 Master’s Wave Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Not Applicable

Short Entry Reference: Short in the range of 110900-111500 in batches, Target: 108900-107600

If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than making hasty conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performers; today they screenshot long positions, and tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they "catch tops and bottoms every time," but in reality, it's all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have a trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don't be blinded by flashy data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!

This article is exclusively planned and published by Master Chen (WeChat public account: Coin God Master Chen). If you want to learn more about real-time investment strategies, liquidation, spot trading, short, medium, and long-term contract trading techniques, operational skills, and knowledge about candlesticks, you can join Master Chen for learning and communication. A free experience group for fans has been opened, along with community live broadcasts and other quality experience projects!

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