Key Summary:
Ethereum rose 75% in the third quarter compared to Bitcoin, but showed slight weakness in September.
Retail investor participation remains low, with a divergence in institutional capital flows.
Ethereum's 75% increase in the third quarter compared to Bitcoin comes despite a recent slowdown in price trends, with traders still believing that this mainstream coin is expected to reach $50,000 by 2025.
Glassnode data shows that futures traders continue to focus on Ethereum. Currently, Ethereum's open interest share is 43.3%, the fourth highest in history, while Bitcoin stands at 56.7%. Meanwhile, the trading volume share of Ethereum perpetual contracts has reached a historical high of 67%, indicating a significant shift in trading activity towards Ethereum.
CryptoQuant analyst Crazzyblockk also pointed out the "key conditions" for a potential Ethereum breakout. He stated that the price level of $4,580, related to accumulation and exchange outflow cost basis, remains crucial, and ETH needs to return to this level to break through.
On Thursday, over 1.28 million Ethereum, worth more than $5.3 billion, flowed into long-term accumulation addresses. If this price level can be reclaimed, it is expected to reverse market sentiment and lay the foundation for a breakthrough to $50,000.
Ethereum found support around $4,100, which corresponds to the average cost basis of highly active addresses.
Recent demand for Ethereum has been primarily driven by institutions, leading to a reduction in circulating supply. The total net assets of U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs increased from $10.32 billion in June to $27.48 billion in September, with an increase of over $17 billion from July to August.
Strategic Ethereum reserves led by Bitmine and SharpLink have also brought more institutional demand, with the allocation increasing from 5,445,458 coins on July 1 to 12,029,054 coins on September 23, a growth of 121%, currently valued at approximately $46 billion.
Despite significant accumulation by institutions, retail participation has weakened. Over the past month, Binance's net active trading volume has remained negative, peaking at the end of September, indicating that while mainstream coins are gaining popularity, selling pressure still exists.
The spot active CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) indicator tracks the cumulative difference in market buying and selling over 90 days, consistently favoring sellers since the end of July. This indicates that retail investors are continuing to sell Ethereum more than they are buying, further exacerbating the divergence between institutional accumulation and retail behavior.
If the spot active CVD enters a buyer-dominated phase, ETH is expected to rise driven by retail investors. This resonance with ongoing institutional accumulation may accelerate broader market momentum.
Related: Ethereum at a Critical Moment: ETH Price Pattern Breaks, $4,000 Becomes the Last Line of Defense
This article does not contain any investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading activities carry risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
Original: “Analyst: Ethereum (ETH) Price Euphoria Fades, but $5,000 Remains the Year-End Target”
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