Key Summary:
Ethereum faces a further decline risk of 15% to $3560 after breaking below the symmetrical triangle.
Bulls must hold the ascending trend line support to avoid a larger drop.
Ethereum's price has dropped over 7.50% this week, mainly influenced by the risk-off sentiment in the crypto market.
Meanwhile, technical analysis shows that the drop in Ethereum's price has triggered a typical bearish reversal pattern, indicating further downside risk.
The breakdown of the symmetrical triangle has turned the short-term trend bearish. Typically, this pattern moves in the direction of the prevailing trend, but a breakdown may signal a reversal.
The downside target for this triangle pattern is $3560, meaning that if selling pressure continues, Ethereum could drop another 15% from current levels before October.
According to analyst Michaël van de Poppe, this target lies within its support range.
In a post on Tuesday, the chartist discussed that he believes Ethereum's price could fall to the $3550 to $3750 range, noting that the 20-week exponential moving average (20-week EMA, blue line in the chart) is around $3685.
"Compression is building --> big moves will happen later," Poppe said, adding:
Despite the triangle breakout setup, bulls still have a line of defense.
Ethereum is currently close to the ascending trend line that has supported its upward trend since April, which previously triggered a 90% to 125% increase.
If the price rebounds from the trend line and closes above the 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA, red line in the chart) at $4250, a further rebound is expected. The rebound target is the upper trend line of the triangle, corresponding to the $4600 to $4700 range.
Another analysis shared by Crypto GEMs indicates that if Ethereum rebounds from the ascending trend line support, the price could aim for a historical high target of $7000.
This view is based on the Wyckoff accumulation theory, suggesting that Ethereum completed the "spring" and "test" phases earlier this year.
Analysis indicates that these phases typically signify the end of a bear market and the beginning of a new upward cycle.
Within this framework, Ethereum's recent decline constitutes a "last point of support" (LPS), which is a healthy pullback to previous resistance levels, with the price expected to regain upward momentum.
If this pattern is validated, Ethereum is likely to see a breakout, targeting the $7000 range.
Analysis suggests that this means achieving at least a 65% increase by the end of 2025, consistent with the price targets proposed by several analysts earlier this year.
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