Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.
1. Market Observation
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech has put pressure on market sentiment. He pointed out that although the Fed has lowered interest rates to the range of 4%-4.25% to address economic slowdown and employment downside risks, inflation has recently rebounded and remains above target. Coupled with uncertainties in trade, immigration, and other policies, future monetary policy will strictly depend on data and economic outlook for flexible adjustments. While he did not explicitly state whether there would be a rate cut in October, related remarks led to profit-taking in the market, with U.S. tech stocks and non-essential consumer goods sectors leading the decline, and the Nasdaq fell nearly 1%.
Yesterday, spot gold hit a new high, approaching $3,800. Patrick Witt, Executive Director of the White House Digital Asset Advisory Committee, stated that the crypto market structure bill is expected to pass by the end of this year. This bill consolidates multiple legislations aimed at building a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets and clarifying the responsibilities of the CFTC and SEC.
Bitcoin has seen its sixth day of decline, dropping to around $111,000 today (12 PM). Analyst Ash Crypto noted that Bitcoin failed to break through the key resistance level of $113,500, combined with the weakening Nasdaq index, which may further exacerbate Bitcoin's downward pressure. He believes Bitcoin needs to successfully break through the levels of $113,500 and $118,000 to usher in a new round of upward momentum and set a new historical high. The current market may experience a period of consolidation before a potential breakout. Michaël van de Poppe believes that if the current support fails, the price may drop to the "maximum buying zone" of $106,000-$108,000. Data provided by Ted shows that there are currently $1.15 billion worth of long liquidation orders concentrated at the price level of $106,700. Analyst 0xENAS expressed concerns about the entire crypto market, stating that after experiencing the largest annual liquidation, the market failed to rebound effectively, exposing a lack of marginal buyers, indicating that the market may generally enter a weak state, predicting that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and SOL may drop to $100,000, $3,400, and $160, respectively.
Ethereum dropped again today (12 PM) to the previous day's low of $4,073. Analysts generally express optimism about its long-term potential but are cautious about short-term trends, believing it needs to undergo a round of adjustment. Analyst Ted predicts that Ethereum may break through $10,000 in this cycle, but will first pull back to the range of $3,600-$3,800. He believes this trend is similar to Bitcoin's over 25% pullback after reaching new highs in the 2017-2021 cycle. Technical analysis also shows that Ethereum has broken below a symmetrical triangle pattern, which theoretically could trigger a 15% decline, targeting $3,560. In response, analyst Michaël van de Poppe believes that the $3,550-$3,750 area is an ideal initial entry point. However, there are also strong bullish voices in the market. Fundstrat analyst Mark Newton believes that Ethereum will not drop below $4,000 and is expected to reach $5,500 before mid-October. Scient's analysis is more detailed, pointing out that as long as Ethereum can hold the key weekly support level of $3,900, the current price around $4,060 has a good risk-reward ratio. If the price further falls below $3,900, attention should be paid to the weekly demand zone between $3,500 and $3,850, which may rebound after being filled in an upward trend. More optimistic analysts like Crypto GEMs, using Wyckoff theory, believe that Ethereum's current pullback is a healthy retracement, building strength for a new high of $7,000.
In the altcoin market, the focus is currently on Plasma's TGE on September 25. Several KOLs have disclosed that its team overlaps with the Blast team, causing significant volatility in its token price, which is currently around $0.68. Additionally, ASTER has become a recent trading focus, with its revenue in the last 24 hours only second to stablecoin protocols Tether and Circle, possibly due to its launch of a trading points activity, causing its price to break through $2.25, rising 32% in 24 hours. FTT's price surged again after September 18, peaking near $1.3, then falling back below $1, with the current increase narrowing to 20%. This volatility is believed to be related to a "GM" tweet from SBF's X account, which SBF has clarified was posted by a friend. Meanwhile, SIGN also experienced a spike and subsequent drop, reaching a high of $0.133, with the current increase narrowing to 25.66%. Yesterday, CZ retweeted a post about "Sign launching a blockchain technology stack S.I.G.N. designed for sovereign nations," mentioning that Sign is a company in the YZi Labs portfolio.
2. Key Data (as of September 24, 1:00 PM HKT)
(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars)
Bitcoin: $112,277 (YTD +20.4%), daily spot trading volume $49.128 billion
Ethereum: $4,151.51 (YTD +24.14%), daily spot trading volume $30.88 billion
Fear and Greed Index: 44 (Neutral)
Average GAS: BTC: 1.11 sat/vB, ETH: 0.19 Gwei
Market share: BTC 57.8%, ETH 13%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: 0G, AVNT, BARD, XRP, UXLINK
24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 49.8%/50.2%
Sector performance: Meme sector down 2.43%, AI sector down 1.34%
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 402,447 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $295 million, including $1.1359 million in BTC liquidations, $904.6 million in ETH liquidations, and $506,000 in SOL liquidations.
BTC medium to long-term trend channel: upper line ($116,170.70), lower line ($113,870.29)
ETH medium to long-term trend channel: upper line ($4,533.24), lower line ($4,443.47)
*Note: When the price is above the upper and lower lines, it indicates a medium to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or fluctuates through the cost range in the short term, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.
3. ETF Flows (as of September 23)
Bitcoin ETF: -$104 million
Ethereum ETF: -$141 million
4. Today's Outlook
Binance Wallet will launch ZEROBASE token presale and Booster event on September 24
ChainOpera AI (COAI) will launch on Binance Alpha and Binance Contract platform on September 25
U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending September 20 (in ten thousand): previous value 231, expected value 235
Nillion (NIL) will unlock approximately 65.12 million tokens at 9 PM on September 24, accounting for 33.37% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $21.4 million;
Particle Network (PARTI) will unlock approximately 182 million tokens at 6 PM on September 25, accounting for 78.44% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $34 million;
Venom (VENOM) will unlock approximately 59.26 million tokens at 4 PM on September 25, accounting for 2.28% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $8.6 million;
AltLayer (ALT) will unlock approximately 240 million tokens at 6 PM on September 25, accounting for 5.67% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $8.1 million;
Today's top gainers among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization: Aster up 22.4%, Zcash up 13.6%, Immutable up 7.3%, Ether.fi up 7.6%, Sky (formerly Maker) up 6.4%.
5. Hot News
Suspected ENA Treasury Company StablecoinX continues to increase holdings of 19.23 million ENA
James Wynn goes long on ASTER and short on HYPE after receiving over $8,000 in referral rewards
Avantis: 40 million AVNT rewards will be distributed in the third season
SharpLink: Did not purchase ETH last week, but earned 509 ETH through staking rewards
Ethereum Treasury Company FG Nexus discloses its ETH holdings have reached 50,000
Space ID transfers 20 million ID to Yzi Labs address, valued at approximately $3.064 million
Aevo Pre-Launch platform launches trading for Monad token MON
Rainbow plans to launch RNBW token for non-custodial crypto wallets in Q4
Worldcoin team wallet transfers 110 million WLD from Ethereum mainnet
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