This article is reprinted with permission from W3C DAO, author: Martin, copyright belongs to the original author.
The fundamental reason driving future money printing is similar to history, that is, to fund wars or military expansion. The Trump administration may restart yield curve control and massive credit expansion by controlling the Federal Reserve, which will lead to significant asset inflation.
The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $40 trillion, with interest payments accounting for 4.2% of GDP. In this context, the Treasury is injecting liquidity into the market far exceeding the scale of the Federal Reserve's QE by issuing government bonds and adjusting repurchase rates.
Arthur Hayes states that in this context, if we compare the price increase of Bitcoin during the pandemic with the scale of credit expansion during the same period, we can conclude that by 2028, the price of one Bitcoin will be approximately $3.4 million, although I am almost 100% sure this will not happen.
But the core logic is that the direction and potential scale of this massive credit expansion are enormous, which will lead to asset price increases similar to or even exceeding those during the pandemic. The "million-dollar" era of Bitcoin is about to arrive.
What does this number mean? Bitcoin is currently just over $110,000, and reaching $200,000 would mean an 80% increase! And $1 million means nearly a tenfold increase from the current price—but Hayes believes this is not a dream; the core logic is two words: liquidity.
Hayes' predictive model compares the price increase of Bitcoin during the pandemic with the scale of credit expansion during the same period. The core idea is that when global fiat currency liquidity is flooding, assets with a fixed supply will experience explosive growth.
Currently, there are only about 21 million Bitcoins, and institutions have consumed 1.25 million through ETFs (accounting for 6% of the circulating supply), while only 160,000 new Bitcoins are added each year after halving. Scarcity is the foundation of its soaring value.
At the same time, global fiat currencies are accelerating in devaluation: the U.S. Treasury's actual borrowing scale from January to March 2025 is expected to surge by 22% year-on-year, with hidden expenditures reaching $300 billion.
The core logic of this prediction is the flooding of liquidity. Hayes explains: "When central banks around the world are frantically printing money to save the market, Bitcoin's fixed supply of 21 million is like Noah's Ark." In the context of the collapse of global fiat currency credit, Bitcoin's fixed supply makes it an ideal tool to combat currency devaluation.
MicroStrategy (now renamed Strategy): has hoarded 632,000 Bitcoins at a cost of $73,000, buying more as prices rise; Standard Chartered: reiterates a $200,000 target by the end of 2025, expecting institutional buying to accelerate; at the national level: Trump is considering using confiscated assets to build a Bitcoin strategic reserve; on-chain data: long-term Bitcoin holders account for over 80% of holdings, liquidity is being crazily drained!
Hayes' prediction is not only based on U.S. policy but also considers changes in global capital flows. He believes that the shift in foreign capital investment patterns will create a favorable environment for Bitcoin.
"Bitcoin is the most perfect and only lifeboat when global capital leaves the U.S. and other regions," Hayes claims. If foreign investors stop investing in U.S. Treasury bonds, the Federal Reserve will need to take quantitative easing measures, which may inadvertently benefit Bitcoin as a non-inflationary asset class.
Although Hayes' prediction is bold, it is backed by an in-depth analysis of the global macroeconomic landscape. In the context of potentially sustained global liquidity expansion, the future of Bitcoin is indeed worth paying attention to.
Related: Can Bitcoin (BTC) price reach $3.4 million by 2028? Arthur Hayes is not optimistic about this.
Original text: “Arthur Hayes: The U.S. could enter a 'money printing frenzy,' predicting Bitcoin's price to be $3.4 million by 2028”
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