At first glance, XRP appears to be doing well with the price holding at $3.03, as if that is where the popular altcoin belongs. Add to that that the first ever U.S. XRP ETF just hit CBOE, and things could not look any more attractive. 

However, the closer you look, the more it seems as though this level is nothing more than a temporary barrier preventing the coin from decreasing in value. 

The Bollinger Bands are closing in, and every small downward movement is making $3 less of a floor and more of a line waiting to break.

Over the past week, the XRP price reached $3.15 before sellers pushed it back down to almost flat at $3.02. The middle band, currently at around $3.05, is no longer catching the fall, and the lower edge is at $2.98 — only a few cents away. 

Once that level is breached, there is little to stop it falling further, with the weekly range showing support only at $2.90 and then at $2.70.

Digging deeper

The price history of XRP also does not support the bullish case. September has rarely been kind to the third biggest cryptocurrency. 

In 2021, it lost over 20%, in 2020 it fell by 14.4% and in 2019 it closed in the red again. Across more than a decade, the median September return is essentially flat at +0.42%, meaning there is little reason to expect a late-month rebound. 

Although XRP appears stable at $3 and September is showing a rare positive return of around +9%, the Bollinger Bands suggest that this sweet spot may be short-lived, as a fall below $3 remains highly probable.

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