The highly anticipated launch of the REX Osprey XRP ETF (XRPR) is being presented as a historic turning point for the Ripple-related token. However, in reality, it may signal the end of the road for the narrative.
XRPR is expected to debut this Thursday with a structure that blends direct XRP holdings and exposure through other spot ETFs abroad, and it has been filed under the same prospectus as the Doge ETF (DOJE), as confirmed by Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart.
While this may sound like validation on the surface, for traders who have lived through multiple cycles, an ETF stamp is less a beginning than a closing chapter.
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It's all about the bands
XRP is currently trading within the upper half of its Bollinger Bands on the daily chart, creating an impression of consistent growth. This positive outlook, however, is not reflected in the broader picture.
On the monthly time frame, the bands are widening at the fastest pace in history. When this occurs, the path forward tends to be more about exhaustion than expansion. The asymmetry is clear: while the upper band is just above $3.50, the lower band is far below $2, showing that the downside is larger and more accessible than the remaining upside.
Source: TradingView
This imbalance is further compounded by the fact that the ETF itself may not introduce new fuel. Each crypto cycle eventually runs out of fresh narratives, and when tokens rely on financial wrappers rather than organic growth, it often signals that the peak is approaching.
Bottom line
The same traders who are currently celebrating the approval may find that they are buying into the final chapter, not the beginning.
While the XRP ETF listing will generate headlines, the charts suggest that this is happening in the late stages of the cycle.
With the Bollinger Bands indicating imbalance and narratives thinning, the lesson for observers is clear: do not mistake a new product launch for the promise of unlimited upside.
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