Key Points:
Today, the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is 100%.
If Bitcoin (BTC) breaks through the key resistance level of $118,000, the price is expected to reach a new high.
Bitcoin (BTC) rose to a four-week high on Wednesday, breaking through $117,000. Traders expect significant volatility in Bitcoin's price around the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.
The CME FedWatch tool shows a 96% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the FOMC meeting on September 17, and a 4% probability of a 50 basis point cut.
Data from the Polymarket platform indicates a 93% probability of a 25 basis point cut at today's FOMC meeting, and a 5% probability of a 50 basis point cut.
Both the CME FedWatch and Polymarket data suggest that there may be three rate cuts before the end of the year.
However, some market commentators believe that the volatility brought by the rate cuts has already been priced in by the market.
Currently, traders are focusing on the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell after the FOMC meeting. Powell has previously faced pressure from U.S. President Trump to lower interest rates and has stated that the current inflation and labor market situation requires adjustment.
Therefore, the market will closely monitor whether Powell's wording changes during the FOMC press conference.
According to a post by private wealth management firm Swissblock on the X platform on Tuesday, the market has priced in a 25 basis point cut for this Wednesday's FOMC meeting, adding that traders will pay attention to "Powell's statements in the spotlight."
The Swissblock team also stated that regardless of the outcome, market volatility is hard to avoid, and added:
Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) analyst AlphaBTC believes that Bitcoin (BTC) price may rise to $118,000 on Wednesday, followed by a pullback after the FOMC decision.
Bitcoin (BTC) needs to turn the $118,000 resistance level into support to continue its upward trend, challenge historical highs, and enter a price discovery phase.
According to crypto analyst Jelle's post on the X platform on Wednesday:
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that Bitcoin (BTC) price is challenging the resistance zone of $117,500 to $118,500, and MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe stated that this is a positive sign.
Bitcoin attacking the range resistance pre-FOMC could be a great sign. Quite usually it's just a run before a drop. We'll see. It's going to be fun! pic.twitter.com/27GySz5j7g
Van de Poppe analyzed that if the $118,000 resistance level is broken, Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to rise further to $120,000, and then challenge the historical high of $124,500.
On the downside, the key focus range is $116,800 to $114,500, which is the price range Bitcoin (BTC) maintained from September 10 to 16.
If it falls below this range, the next step will be to retest the psychological level of $112,000, which is also where the 100-day simple moving average is located.
Related: Financial technology company LMAX launches Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) perpetual contracts for institutional traders.
Original article: “Bitcoin (BTC) price breaks $117,000, traders closely watch Fed rate cuts”
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