Written by: Luke, Mars Finance

Is Polymarket about to launch a token?

This question is rapidly gaining traction following the exposure of "Other Warrants" in an SEC filing. This is not just speculation about an airdrop, but the prologue to a series of capital dramas: a mysterious round of financing currently underway, with valuations fluctuating wildly between $3 billion and $10 billion; its main competitor Kalshi is also raising funds at an astonishing valuation of $5 billion; and all of this is happening against a dramatic backdrop—just weeks ago, Polymarket regained permission to enter the U.S. market through a clever legal maneuver.

These seemingly isolated events are, in fact, interconnected. They depict how a "barbarian" exiled by regulation can transform into a darling pursued by top capital. In the face of an increasingly tight market share battle with the compliance "model student" Kalshi, could a potential token become Polymarket's trump card to break the deadlock and win the final battle? And how should its true value be measured?

"Curveball Return": A Clever Comeback Worth $112 Million

In 2022, Polymarket was fined $1.4 million by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for operating an unregistered derivatives market and was forced to stop serving U.S. users. This was widely seen as the end of its "American Dream."

However, a turning point occurred on September 4 of this year. Its founder and CEO Shayne Coplan announced on X that Polymarket had been granted permission to return to the U.S. market. This was not due to a sudden leniency from regulators, but rather a textbook-level strategic operation. In July of this year, Polymarket spent $112 million to acquire a U.S.-registered exchange and clearinghouse named QCEX. It was based on this acquisition that the CFTC issued a crucial "no-action letter" to QCEX.

This letter does not provide a blanket exemption but precisely allows it to offer prediction market services related to events such as elections and exempts it from certain cumbersome record-keeping requirements. Polymarket paved the way for its rebirth in the U.S. by "marrying" its business to this compliant shell. The core idea of this operation is no longer the reckless "cutting first and asking questions later" approach of the early crypto world, but rather a demonstration of a new mature paradigm: without sacrificing the core product logic, cleverly anchoring innovation within specific exempt areas of the existing regulatory framework through legal engineering.

The $10 Billion Valuation Fog and the Mystery of "Token Warrants"

After clearing the biggest compliance hurdle, capital's sense of smell is always the most sensitive. According to anonymous sources cited by Business Insider, Polymarket is initiating a new round of financing, with investor demand continuing to heat up, and the valuation range is at least above $3 billion, with at least one investor's letter of intent indicating a valuation as high as $10 billion.

This is a stark contrast to the round of financing led by Peter Thiel's Founders Fund at a $1 billion valuation just months ago. After that round of financing, Polymarket's total funding amount reached $255 million. The enormous valuation elasticity of this new financing reflects the market's vast imagination regarding its return to the U.S. and the early pricing of its potential token value.

The "Other Warrants" disclosed in the SEC filing are key to understanding this massive financing and Polymarket's future strategy. In the crypto investment and financing field, "token warrants" are a clever financial tool. They grant investors the right to purchase tokens at an agreed price in the future, but do not obligate them to make the purchase.

The brilliance of this design lies in its allowance for Polymarket to complete equity financing without immediately issuing tokens (thus avoiding the direct regulatory risk of "tokens as securities"), giving the team valuable time to refine the product and design the token economic model. It can be said that "token warrants" are a tailored "airbag" for Polymarket and top investors in the current ambiguous regulatory environment, a testament to its transition from a rough start to maturity.

The Battle of Prediction Markets: A Clash of Two Philosophies

Polymarket's high-profile return with substantial capital means it will engage in a direct confrontation with its long-time compliant competitor Kalshi. The significance of this competition has transcended a mere market share battle; it resembles a "route battle" regarding the future form of prediction markets, and the latest data makes this confrontation exceptionally intense.

From the data, the battle has reached a fever pitch. Both sides are conducting massive financing, with valuations reaching astonishing multi-billion dollar levels. In terms of core trading volume metrics, Kalshi is rapidly closing the gap with Polymarket.

Kalshi represents a "bottom-up" compliance path. From its inception, it has strictly adhered to the regulatory framework, sacrificing some market freedom and efficiency in exchange for indisputable legitimacy in the U.S. Its user profile leans more towards traditional financial individuals seeking alternative asset allocation.

In contrast, Polymarket represents a "top-down" crypto path. Born in the fertile ground of DeFi, it quickly captured the imagination of global crypto users with low fees, high efficiency, and boundless market creativity. Now, it is attempting to "package" this market-validated product capability within a compliant shell to counterattack the U.S. market.

There are no absolute advantages in this confrontation. Kalshi's moat is its deep compliance foundation, while Polymarket's sharp edge is its strong product experience and cultural genes deeply rooted in the crypto community. With both sides' strengths so closely matched, any variable could become the decisive factor that breaks the balance.

The Highly Anticipated "Phantom": A Token That Could Break the Deadlock

This biggest variable is likely Polymarket's "half-hidden" token.

Although the official details have not yet been announced, the existence of "token warrants" has made its token issuance an "open secret." The entire crypto community is holding its breath, as a well-designed Polymarket token, along with its potential airdrop, has the potential to become a "nuclear weapon" that ignites the entire sector.

Referring to the experiences of predecessors like Augur (REP) and Gnosis (GNO), Polymarket's token may possess various utilities such as decentralized governance, outcome arbitration and secure staking, economic incentives, and fee reductions. However, for millions of users, the most direct temptation is undoubtedly the airdrop.

In the crypto world, airdrops have long ceased to be merely a means of distributing tokens; they have become a powerful marketing weapon, a community mobilization order, and a trigger for wealth effects. Polymarket itself has hinted at "future drops" on social media. It is foreseeable that as expectations for the token launch continue to rise, a massive influx of users will pour into the platform, actively participating in trading to qualify for future token allocations. This could quickly widen the trading volume gap with Kalshi in the short term, giving it a valuable edge in the critical U.S. market battle.

Conclusion: Beyond Tokens, A Prophecy About the Future

The story of Polymarket has transcended the realm of a company seeking financing or launching a token. It is a prism reflecting several core issues in the current crypto industry: the dance between innovation and regulation, the integration of crypto-native and mainstream capital, and how decentralized networks can achieve explosive growth through economic incentives.

By cleverly returning to the stage through legal design, holding a massive valuation from top capital, and laying the groundwork for the future with "token warrants" as a nuclear weapon—every step Polymarket takes is strategically positioned on the chessboard.

In the future, when this highly anticipated token truly lands, what it carries will be more than just expectations of wealth effects. It will be the ultimate test of Polymarket's grand strategy, which combines wisdom, patience, and ambition, and the most crucial winning chip in its equally matched "King of the Hill" battle with Kalshi. The outcome of this war will provide a valuable "prophecy" about the future for countless crypto projects attempting to find their place in the compliant world.

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