Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜jk

Cryptocurrency exchange Gemini officially listed on Nasdaq on September 12, with the stock code GEMI, marking the realization of the listing dream for the trading platform founded by the Winklevoss twins after many years. However, the initial market enthusiasm was quickly cooled by the harsh financial data, as the stock price rapidly fell back after a frenzied rise on the first day of trading, revealing that the company's fundamentals had not actually won the confidence of retail investors in the U.S. stock market.

The Long Road to Listing: From $7.1 Billion Valuation to IPO

Gemini's path to listing has been quite tortuous. Founded by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss in 2014, the cryptocurrency exchange began preparing for its IPO several years ago. Reports indicate that the company spent about three years preparing for the IPO, but due to unfavorable market conditions and a weak IPO environment, the company had to postpone its listing plans twice, once to mid-2024 and again to April 2025.

During the cryptocurrency bull market at the end of 2021, Gemini was valued at $7.1 billion in a funding round, but the subsequent crash of the cryptocurrency market in 2022, including the collapse of its Earn product and the bankruptcy of its partner Genesis, forced Gemini into a contraction mode. It wasn't until mid-2025, with improved market sentiment and a clearer regulatory environment, that the company restarted its listing plans.

In June of this year, Gemini secretly submitted its IPO application to the SEC, joining the wave of cryptocurrency companies going public, including Circle and Bullish. Ultimately, after months of preparation and roadshows, the company chose the traditional IPO route to list on Nasdaq.

Relatively speaking, Gemini's listing did not create much of a stir in the cryptocurrency circle; firstly, because it focuses on the U.S. domestic market, and the founding brothers are prominent figures in cryptocurrency-related meetings involving President Trump. Additionally, Gemini's approach to listing was more "quietly entering the village," resulting in far less anticipation compared to the rising star Bullish.

From Frenzy to Calm: The Stock Price Journey

Gemini's IPO pricing underwent multiple adjustments, with the initial price range set at $17-19, which was later raised to $24-26 due to strong demand, ultimately pricing at $28, at the top of the adjusted range. This pricing reflects strong market demand for the stock; according to Reuters, the subscription multiple exceeded 20 times, indicating investor enthusiasm for the concept of a U.S. domestic cryptocurrency exchange.

However, the performance on the opening day was quite dramatic, with a rollercoaster-like trajectory bringing the stock price back to reality. The stock began trading at 1:40 PM, immediately jumping to $37.01, about a 32% increase from the IPO price. In the early trading, the stock price even surged to $45.89, a 64% increase, triggering a volatility trading halt. Subsequently, the initial frenzy was quickly replaced by rationality: by the end of the day, the stock price fell back to $32, narrowing the increase to about 14%.

Even more concerning was the performance in the following days: as of September 16, the GEMI stock price had dropped to around $30.42, down about 6% on that day, nearly a 24% decline from its peak since listing. This sharp pullback reflects, to some extent, investors' reassessment of the company's fundamentals.

So what are the reasons for their reassessment?

Severe Financial Realities

Gemini's financial performance is quite concerning, which is a major reason for the stock price decline. According to SEC filings, the company recorded $68.6 million in revenue in the first half of 2025, a 7.7% decrease from $74.3 million in the same period last year. More seriously, the net loss reached $283 million, far exceeding last year's loss of $41.4 million, with a year-on-year increase in losses of 580%. Additionally, the first half of this year was not a bear market; thus, a major question from investors is, where did the money go?

This trend of deteriorating performance is deeply concerning. From a longer-term perspective, Gemini's total revenue for 2024 was $142.2 million, a 44.8% year-on-year increase, but the net loss still reached $158.5 million. (In other words, the first half of this year lost more than the entire last year); for the 12-month period ending June 30, 2025, the company's revenue was $136.45 million, indicating that revenue growth has stagnated.

Analysts point out that Gemini currently relies heavily on trading fee income, which accounts for about 70% of total revenue in 2024. The surge in losses in the first half of 2025 is mainly attributed to special expenses related to the Genesis bankruptcy case and the Earn project, including legal fees, debt interest, and asset impairments.

Despite the poor financial data, Gemini still shows some growth momentum in operational metrics. The number of monthly active trading users reached 523,000 in the first half of 2025, an increase from 497,000 in the same period last year. Trading volume also surged from $16.6 billion in the same period last year to $24.8 billion, an increase of nearly 50%. As of July 31, 2025, the number of monthly trading users further grew to 549,000.

Comparison with Bullish: Different Fates of Concurrent Listings

Gemini's listing closely followed the footsteps of other cryptocurrency companies, particularly contrasting sharply with Bullish, which just listed on the New York Stock Exchange about a month ago. Bullish is a digital asset platform focused on institutional clients, led by former NYSE president Tom Farley, and backed by well-known investors such as Peter Thiel, BlackRock, and ARK Invest. Its IPO set a positive tone for the entire cryptocurrency IPO market.

From the first-day performance, both companies experienced a frenzied rise at the opening. Bullish completed its IPO on August 13 at a price of $37, raising about $1.1 billion, with an IPO valuation of about $5.4 billion. On the opening day, the stock price immediately jumped to $90, a 143% increase, with an intraday high of $118, exceeding a 200% increase, far surpassing Gemini's highest first-day increase of 64%. Bullish's first-day closing price was $68, an 84% increase, also showing strong performance.

However, both companies have followed nearly identical trajectories in subsequent performance. As of mid-September, Bullish's stock price had fallen to around $51, a decline of about 56% from its peak, with a current market capitalization of about $7.8 billion. This degree of pullback is more severe compared to Gemini's 24% decline, indicating that even stronger-performing cryptocurrency IPOs struggle to maintain initial market enthusiasm.

In terms of market capitalization comparison, the gap between the two is quite evident. Gemini achieved an initial market capitalization of about $3.3 billion at an IPO price of $28, with the current stock price of about $30 corresponding to a market capitalization of about $3.8 billion. In contrast, Bullish's IPO valuation of $5.4 billion and its current market capitalization of about $7.8 billion significantly exceed Gemini's, demonstrating a considerable latecomer advantage.

Horizontal Comparison with Coinbase and Kraken: The Huge Gap in Industry Competition

Comparing Gemini with its main competitors reveals a shocking disparity in scale and profitability. As the largest publicly traded cryptocurrency exchange in the U.S., Coinbase far surpasses Gemini in all metrics.

In terms of revenue scale, Coinbase recorded approximately $3.53 billion in revenue in the first half of 2025, with $2.03 billion in the first quarter and $1.5 billion in the second quarter. This figure is 51 times Gemini's revenue of $68.6 million during the same period, fully showcasing the vast gap between the two. Even more impressively, Coinbase achieved a net profit of $1.43 billion in the second quarter, with earnings per share of $5.14, while Gemini remains mired in losses.

The disparity is equally evident in trading volume. Coinbase's retail trading volume in the second quarter was $43 billion, a 16% year-on-year increase, far exceeding Gemini's total trading volume of $24.8 billion in the first half of 2025. Coinbase's subscription and service revenue reached $655.8 million in the second quarter, which alone is close to Gemini's total annual revenue level.

The privately held Kraken exchange also performed impressively, significantly outpacing Gemini in both scale and profitability. In the first half of 2025, Kraken recorded $884 million in revenue, with $472 million in the first quarter and $412 million in the second quarter, representing year-on-year growth of 19% and 18%, respectively. This revenue scale is 13 times that of Gemini, demonstrating Kraken's strong market position.

More importantly, Kraken maintains healthy profitability. Adjusted EBITDA reached $187 million in the first quarter and $80 million in the second quarter, totaling about $267 million for the first half of the year. In contrast, Gemini not only has a smaller scale but also faces the pressure of significant losses.

From a historical financial data perspective, this trend of disparity becomes even more pronounced. Coinbase's total revenue for 2024 reached $6.56 billion, a year-on-year increase of 111%, with a net profit of $2.58 billion and a profit margin of 41%. The company successfully transitioned from a net loss of $2.6 billion in 2022 to substantial profitability, demonstrating strong cyclical recovery capabilities. Kraken's 2024 revenue reached $1.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 128%, with adjusted EBITDA of $424 million. The company maintained a near break-even state during the cryptocurrency winter of 2022-2023, with only a $1.8 million loss in 2022, and rapidly achieved strong profit growth entering the market recovery period in 2024.

In contrast, Gemini achieved only $142.2 million in revenue in 2024, with a net loss of $158.5 million. The company's performance in the first half of 2025 further deteriorated, raising doubts about whether it can maintain its position as the third-largest domestic exchange in the U.S. In comparison, Gemini seems to treat its listing as a last straw.

As of June 2025, the company's cash balance was only $42.8 million, while short-term debt reached approximately $680 million, indicating a very tight asset-liability structure. This financial situation partly explains why the company urgently needs to raise funds through an IPO to improve its capital structure.

The Divergence Trend of Cryptocurrency IPOs

Gemini's listing is an important part of the cryptocurrency IPO boom in 2025. In a more favorable regulatory environment, several cryptocurrency companies have chosen to go public in 2025. In addition to Gemini and Bullish, stablecoin issuer Circle also successfully completed its IPO in June, with its stock price "soaring" on the first day, setting a positive precedent for the entire industry.

However, Gemini's performance represents a clear divergence in the market. While factors such as an improved regulatory environment, increased institutional adoption, and inflows from Bitcoin ETFs provide positive support for the entire industry, investors are clearly favoring companies that have already achieved profitability or are close to it.

Compass Point analyst Ed Engel pointed out that GEMI's current trading price is equivalent to 26 times its annualized revenue for the first half of the year. For a loss-making company in a highly volatile industry, such a valuation multiple is indeed high, which may be a significant reason for investors' cautious attitude and the stock price correction.

Future Outlook: Kraken Plans to Go Public Next Year

It is reported that Kraken is planning to conduct an IPO in 2026, and the company is currently raising $500 million at a valuation of $15 billion in preparation for the eventual listing. This is a company with healthy revenue.

Kraken's co-CEO has stated that the company's IPO strategy relies on the clarity of the regulatory environment. In contrast, Gemini chose to go public under the current regulatory conditions, thereby taking on the risks of being a pioneer.

From a broader industry perspective, Gemini's listing experience highlights the maturation trend of the cryptocurrency exchange industry. Investors are no longer satisfied with concepts and growth stories alone; they are increasingly focused on actual profitability and sustainable business models. This trend may drive the entire industry towards a greater emphasis on operational efficiency and profitability.

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