Across the daily chart, bitcoin shows signs of a weakening bullish trend after rebounding from a local bottom of $107,270. While the initial recovery was accompanied by consistent green candlesticks and high volume, recent sessions exhibit falling volume—a signal that bullish momentum is waning. Price action is now consolidating beneath the resistance zone of $116,000 to $117,000. Traders should monitor the $112,000 to $113,000 level for potential long entries if selling volume remains low. Profit-taking near resistance is advisable unless volume returns decisively.
BTC/USD 1-day chart via Bitstamp on Sept. 16, 2025.
On the four-hour chart, bitcoin reached a recent high of $116,805 on September 13 before transitioning into a sideways channel between $114,800 and $116,000. This structure resembles either a bull flag or a potential distribution phase, depending on volume behavior. While support is visible at $112,289, the presence of bearish candlesticks and indecisiveness makes this a neutral setup. A breakout above $116,800 with strong volume would confirm bullish continuation, whereas a breakdown below $114,500 may signal a short-term decline.
BTC/USD 4-hour chart via Bitstamp on Sept. 16, 2025.
The one-hour bitcoin chart presents a more bearish outlook. A local high of $116,786 was followed by a sharp drop to $114,421, with subsequent lower highs indicating bearish divergence. Notably, volume spiked during the drop but remained weak during the recovery—a classic pattern of a dead cat bounce. This suggests distribution or profit-taking by short-term holders. A move above $116,000 with high volume is required to reestablish bullish momentum. Conversely, a break below $114,000 could reopen the path to $112,000.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart via Bitstamp on Sept. 16, 2025.
From an oscillator perspective, the relative strength index (RSI) sits at 57, reflecting a neutral stance. The Stochastic oscillator is elevated at 83 but remains neutral. The commodity channel index (CCI) at 103 indicates a bearish signal, while the average directional index (ADX) at 17 confirms a lack of a strong trend. The Awesome oscillator registers 2,373, also neutral. Meanwhile, momentum at 5,136 and the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) level at 543 both suggest a bullish bias.
Moving averages continue to support a bullish long-term view. All key exponential moving averages (EMAs) and simple moving averages (SMAs) across 10, 20, 30, 50, 100, and 200 periods are flashing bullish signals. For example, the exponential moving average (50) stands at $113,518, and the simple moving average (50) is $114,358—both below the current price, offering dynamic support. However, in the absence of strong volume, these indicators may serve more as guides for long-term positioning rather than short-term conviction.
Bull Verdict:
If bitcoin manages to break above $116,800 with convincing volume, it could trigger a continuation of the broader uptrend, supported by strong moving average alignment and bullish momentum indicators like the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) and momentum. In this scenario, a retest of the $118,000 to $120,000 zone becomes increasingly likely, especially if buying pressure accelerates and volume confirms the breakout.
Bear Verdict:
Failure to hold the $114,000 per bitcoin support level could initiate a retracement toward the $112,000 region, or even lower if selling volume intensifies. The weakening volume profile on the daily chart and bearish divergence on the hourly chart suggest caution, as these are often precursors to short-term reversals. In this case, short-term traders may favor downside risk protection until price action reclaims bullish structure with strong confirmation.
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