According to data from asset management company Fidelity, based on the current purchasing pace of Bitcoin treasury companies, approximately 42% of Bitcoin's current circulating supply, or 8.3 million BTC, could become "illiquid" by 2032.
In a report released on Monday, Fidelity identified two groups of supply that can be considered illiquid, based on the criterion that their Bitcoin supply has increased in at least 90% of the quarters over the past four years.
Based on this, the company identified two groups: long-term Bitcoin holders and publicly traded companies holding at least 1,000 BTC, the latter of which has been increasing this year.
The illiquid supply of Bitcoin means a reduction in the available amount on the public market, which could have a positive impact on Bitcoin prices.
"We estimate that by the end of 2025, these two groups will collectively hold over 6 million BTC—accounting for more than 28% of the 21 million BTC that will ever exist," Fidelity stated.
The company found that long-term Bitcoin holders (defined as those who have not moved Bitcoin from their wallets for at least seven years) have not seen any reduction in supply since 2016.
The second group, publicly traded companies holding at least 1,000 BTC, has also generally maintained a strong position in Bitcoin holdings, with only one instance of a supply reduction occurring in the second quarter of 2022.
This group may also increase in the future, as there are currently 105 publicly traded Bitcoin-holding companies. According to Bitbo data, publicly traded companies currently hold over 969,000 BTC, accounting for 4.61% of the total Bitcoin supply.
Looking ahead, Fidelity predicts that by the second quarter of 2032, 8.3 million BTC could become illiquid.
The company arrived at this figure by assuming that the group of wallets holding BTC for at least seven years will continue to increase supply at the same rate as in the past decade.
The company did not account for additional supply shortages caused by newly public companies.
"As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the circulating supply of Bitcoin is approximately 19.8 million BTC. Among this, we estimate that by the second quarter of 2032, nearly 42%—or over 8.3 million BTC—will be considered illiquid."
The report emphasized that at the end of the second quarter, these two groups collectively held Bitcoin worth $628 billion, with an average price of $107,700, which is double that of last year.
This raises the question: what would happen to Bitcoin prices if whales began to sell their BTC reserves?
Bitcoin whales have collectively sold nearly $12.7 billion worth of BTC in the past 30 days, marking the largest sell-off since mid-2022. Meanwhile, according to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin prices have dropped 2% over the past 30 days.
Related: Standard Chartered: Digital asset treasuries are under pressure as market NAV plummets
Original article: “Fidelity Predicts Bitcoin (BTC) Illiquid Supply Could Reach 8.3 Million by 2032”
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