The viewpoint is very similar to that of Brother Wu, but I will break it down a bit. This wave should have started in early 2023, after all, it did drop quite significantly until the end of 2022:
From early 2023 to March 2023, what happened during this time was that the Federal Reserve transitioned from aggressive interest rate hikes to more moderate increases.
From April 2023 to October 2023, this period was mainly characterized by fluctuations. The primary reason was that the market was digesting BlackRock's application for a spot ETF. Since the market had applied many times before and had been rejected, many old OGs were indifferent. However, Wall Street and some American investors familiar with BlackRock began to sense something different, as it was the king of ETFs making a move, and BlackRock had never failed in its ETF applications.
From mid-October 2023 until January 11, 2024, there is no doubt that the market was engaged in a game regarding BlackRock's application for a spot ETF. As more and more evidence suggested that BlackRock would succeed, the market reacted strongly. Thinking back, is this period similar to the 2024 election?
In January 2024, after a painful two weeks, the price of $BTC dropped from nearly $49,000 to a low of $38,500. At that time, many investors believed that the approval of BlackRock's ETF had already priced in the good news and turned into bad news, leading to massive sell-offs. Of course, it was mainly a case of "Sell The News." This money was the first pot of gold earned by early Bitcoin spot ETF investors.
From the end of January 2024 to mid-March 2024, although it was only a two-month period, BTC nearly doubled from the bottom, reaching nearly $74,000. During the same period, U.S. stocks were also rising, mainly due to market expectations that the Federal Reserve would begin to cut interest rates. However, the Federal Reserve continued to delay, and by April, market sentiment began to deteriorate.
From April to October 2024, both U.S. stocks and Bitcoin experienced a trend of fluctuations, with BTC showing greater volatility. U.S. stocks performed relatively better, and ETF investors experienced their first downturn. At this time, the cryptocurrency sector did not react much to Trump, but U.S. stocks had already begun to react a month in advance to whether Trump could take office.
From early November 2024 to January 21, 2025, this period was undoubtedly dominated by Trump sentiment. Whether in U.S. stocks or cryptocurrencies, there was anticipation that Trump could fulfill his promises, revive the U.S. economy, and establish a strategic reserve for BTC. However, there was still bad news; although the Federal Reserve began to cut interest rates at the end of the year, the threat to the market was greater because the dot plot indicated that there would only be two rate cuts in 2025, and Trump was still saying he supported Powell.
From late January 2025 to early April 2025, tariffs completely dominated the market. The shadow of tariffs loomed over the entire risk market, especially the tariff competition with China, which caused U.S. stocks and BTC to plummet. During this time, there were all kinds of market statements, even suggesting that Trump deliberately caused the U.S. economic recession, which ultimately ended with the decline marked by Trump's tariff extension.
From mid-April 2025 to the end of May, this was the last significant surge of Bitcoin spot ETFs up to now. Starting in June, the spot and secondary markets for BTC ETFs fell into a slump. Although prices maintained a fluctuating upward trend, it was mainly due to U.S. stocks and some favorable policies. During this time, there was also a lot of uncertainty interfering with the market, but overall, there were two main issues:
- Trump, Musk, and the Big Beautiful Plan.
- Trump's TACO (Trump has been retreating, mainly discussing tariffs).
From June 2025 to now, although tariffs and geopolitical conflicts may interfere with the market, the most important game has shifted to Trump and the Federal Reserve, the market and the Federal Reserve, as well as the Federal Reserve's own game. In fact, at this point, the funding aspect is not very friendly to BTC; more attention has been focused on $ETH, allowing ETH to enter a golden cycle. The funding for ETH spot ETFs during this short period even surpassed that of BTC.
If we really talk about this wave of increase, the ETF is undoubtedly the biggest driving force, allowing Bitcoin to be fully compliant in the U.S. and bringing in the first batch of massive external funds. This period also saw many "old OGs" miss out, as most did not believe that BlackRock and Americans would support BTC; they thought it would take a drop before a rise.
This time also marked the end of the era of BTC's wild growth driven by market manipulators; it has become rare to hear that BTC's volatility is due to market manipulators or institutions colluding with ETFs.
On a deeper level, the U.S. political landscape has begun to view BTC and cryptocurrencies more favorably. It is worth noting that both spot ETFs were approved by Gary, the SEC chairman during the Biden administration. The overall political landscape in the U.S. no longer sees BTC as a monster or a scam but as a new type of economic product, along with stablecoins.
Whether political theory has driven capital (like BlackRock) or capital has driven politics, Trump is indeed the first U.S. president to bring cryptocurrency to a new political height, which should not be denied. However, many people overlook that the entire phase of this increase was almost entirely driven by external funds, with little relation to the cryptocurrency market itself. Only a very small number of cryptocurrencies could catch this wave of benefits, mainly due to the Federal Reserve's tightening.
If there were no ETF, no election, and no Trump this time, what would BTC look like now? It would likely still be fluctuating below $70,000, as there would be no capital overflow in the cryptocurrency sector, hence no altcoin season.
To summarize, 25 years ago, it relied on ETFs and Trump's FOMO; 25 years later, it is also Trump who brings success or failure.
This article is sponsored by #Bitget ｜ @Bitget_zh
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