Key Points:
Bitcoin's $4.3 billion options expiration leans towards neutral to bullish bets; if the price remains above $113,000, bulls will have a $175 million advantage.
Macroeconomic uncertainty, including weak U.S. employment data and concerns in the AI sector, may determine Bitcoin's short-term trend.
Bitcoin (BTC) broke through the $114,000 mark on Thursday, following Oracle Corporation's (ORCL) positive earnings report, as the company is a significant player in the AI infrastructure space. This drove Bitcoin's price to a new high in over two weeks, increasing market expectations for bullish momentum ahead of Friday's $4.3 billion BTC options expiration.
Among the options expiring this week, put options dominate, with an open interest value of $2.35 billion. The open interest value of call options is $1.93 billion. However, as Bitcoin's price moves away from the $107,500 low in early September, call options have gained some advantage. In a generally optimistic market among crypto traders, the current imbalance favoring put options is uncommon.
Deribit currently dominates the market, accounting for 75% of Bitcoin's options expiring this week, while OKX holds 13%, and Bybit and Binance each account for about 5%. Given Deribit's dominance, changes in its positions provide the best signal for whether Bitcoin can break through $120,000 in the short term.
Bearish or neutral position layouts are limited; currently, there are only $125 million worth of put options with open interest set at $114,000 or above on the Deribit platform. In contrast, if Bitcoin remains above $113,000 before Friday's options expiration, over $300 million worth of call options will enter the money. This $175 million advantage may provide momentum for Bitcoin to continue its bullish trend.
Oracle Corporation announced an increase of $455 billion in future contracts, enhancing market expectations for its profitability, with its stock surging 36% on Wednesday. The Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI alone accounts for $300 billion of Oracle's backlog, raising concerns about the sustainability of AI-driven growth.
X user sam_mielke pointed out that Nvidia (NVDA) benefits from selling equipment to Oracle, even as Nvidia itself rents AI data centers, generating continuous revenue. The post suggests that these companies may convert capital expenditures into revenue through a cycle of funding operations.
Despite existing criticisms, recession fears may still bolster Bitcoin bulls' confidence in reaching new all-time highs in 2025.
After a significant downward revision of U.S. employment data on Tuesday, traders' optimism was affected. Yahoo Finance quoted Bank of America stock analyst Ebrahim Poonawala, stating that rising unemployment rates could weaken the credit quality of large banks, but he noted that credit losses since 2025 have not had a significant impact.
If Bitcoin maintains above $112,000 before Friday's options expiration, the open interest value of call options will exceed puts by $50 million. This would support a neutral to bullish strategy. However, if the price falls below $111,000 by 8 a.m. on Friday, put options will gain a $100 million advantage.
Ultimately, Bitcoin's trend is likely to be determined at the last moment, with macroeconomic uncertainty being a decisive factor.
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Original: “$4.3 Billion Worth of Bitcoin Options Expiration May Open the Door for BTC to Rise to $120K”
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