The six-month rolling volatility of Bitcoin has dropped from nearly 60% at the beginning of the year to about 30% currently, marking a historic low. As volatility approaches that of gold, Bitcoin's current volatility is only twice that of gold, which is also the lowest ratio in history. JPMorgan believes this makes Bitcoin increasingly attractive for institutional portfolios.

Bitcoin has been experiencing extreme fluctuations for nearly ten days, with a four-hour chart showing an ascending triangle that is about to change trend. Gold has reached a new high, peaking at 3674.

Bitcoin

Since September 1, when it was around 108,000, I have been reminding to watch for a rebound, and it has been 10 days. The current outlook remains the same, looking at resistance levels of 115,500—117,400. The four-hour chart has formed an ascending triangle and is currently breaking out.

On the daily chart, there are two bullish candles sandwiching a bearish one, with the price line above MA120 and MA20. The upward rebound pressure is at MA60, which is around 115,400 and 117,400. The Fibonacci retracement is near 0.382, with MACD continuing above the zero line and RSI turning upwards. In the analysis, I also mentioned the rebound opportunity at the lower Bollinger Band of the 3-day line; this is the first time touching the lower Bollinger Band in this cycle, so the probability of a rebound is relatively high. However, whether it can directly reach a new high will depend on the strength of the pullback after the interest rate cut, and a second pullback test is likely.

Support: 107,000—109,300

Resistance: 115,400—117,400

Ethereum

Since the false breakout and pullback on the daily chart, Ethereum has been oscillating in a narrow range of 4200—4500 for over ten days. Ethereum and I have been predicting a box range oscillation since the pullback, so it is basically replicating the previous three waves of movement. After Bitcoin completes this rebound and pullback, we will see if Ethereum will have a false breakdown followed by a rebound opportunity.

The daily chart has been under pressure from the middle Bollinger Band, which is also MA20. Technical indicators are hard to read; if it breaks above 4500, there may be another short-term rebound.

Support: 3850—4200

Resistance: 4500—4788—4956

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This article is time-sensitive and for reference only; it is updated in real-time.

Focusing on K-line technical research, sharing global investment opportunities. Public account: BTC Trading Master Fusu

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