"American citizens have been watching Trump's 'job interview' for years, and the way the Federal Reserve Chair is being selected this time is somewhat similar," said Allen Klein, a senior research fellow in economic studies at the Brookings Institution in Washington.
This real-life version of "The Apprentice" is unfolding: U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra began interviewing the 11 candidates nominated by the Trump administration for the Federal Reserve Chair on Friday, with interviews taking place either in person or via video calls, potentially lasting until next week. This selection process not only concerns who will succeed Powell at the helm of the world's most important central bank but will also determine the direction of U.S. monetary policy, the financial regulatory framework, and the development paths of emerging areas such as crypto assets for the coming years.
Treasury Secretary Becerra initiated the interview process for Federal Reserve Chair candidates on September 5. The interviews were originally scheduled to begin shortly after Labor Day (September 1) and will be conducted in person or via video conference, expected to last until next week. The White House's public disclosure of the list of 11 candidates is not conventional. Princeton economist Alan Blinder pointed out, "Although information is bound to leak, the White House usually tries to keep the candidate list confidential."
This unusual transparency has sparked various interpretations. Chris Low, chief economist at FHN Financial, believes it may be to counter the notion that "Trump will pick someone overly controlled by him." Other experts argue that the Trump administration's method of selecting a new Federal Reserve Chair should be seen as a means to pressure the Fed into lowering interest rates.
Among the 11 candidates listed by Trump and Becerra, three have been viewed as frontrunners or at least strong competitors in recent months.
Christopher Waller is a current Federal Reserve governor, personally nominated by Trump during his first term, and he has a strong academic background and practical policy experience. Waller is known for his "data-driven but relatively flexible" style and has recently publicly supported a prompt interest rate cut.
Kevin Hassett, as the director of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, has a deep connection with President Trump, analyzing economic data for him almost daily and being referred to by Trump as his "economics professor." Their policy ideas align, making him a candidate with a very high "political trust level."
Kevin Warsh is a former Federal Reserve governor whose father-in-law is an heir to Estée Lauder. He became the youngest governor in Federal Reserve history at the age of 35. After leaving the Fed, he researched monetary policy reform at the Hoover Institution at Stanford. His deep connections in Washington and Wall Street are also seen as a plus.
The other candidates include: Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, and two former Fed officials Larry Lindsey and James Bullard. Additionally, Marc Sumerlin, founder and managing partner of Evenflow Macro, Rick Rieder, chief investment officer of global fixed income at BlackRock, and David Zervos, chief market strategist at Jefferies, are also on the list.
Becerra has set the tone for the selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair. In a media interview on August 7, he clearly stated that the new Fed Chair should be someone "capable of examining the entire organization." Becerra believes that the Fed's mission has included too many matters beyond monetary policy, which has put its independence at risk. He also stated that the new chair must "earn market confidence and have the ability to analyze complex economic data."
More importantly, there should be a "focus on forward-thinking rather than relying on historical data." This statement indicates a significant shift in the Federal Reserve's decision-making methodology in the future. Currently, the Fed heavily relies on lagging indicators such as historical inflation data and employment metrics in its interest rate decisions. Future policy-making may be more based on predictions of economic prospects rather than retrospective analysis of past data.
Among the 11 candidates, three have shown particular interest in the field of crypto assets, and their policy positions could have a profound impact on the future of the crypto market.
Waller's examination of crypto assets has been almost harshly critical from the start. He has compared most cryptocurrencies to "baseball cards"—lacking intrinsic value, with prices dependent on a fragile balance of sentiment and confidence. On the topic of stablecoins, Waller has shown a different side. He has repeatedly emphasized that "stablecoins can improve payment efficiency and introduce international competition and speed," provided that Congress improves legislation and establishes sufficient and transparent reserve and custody rules. Waller insists that innovation should be led by the private sector, with the government's role being to "build the highways"—infrastructure like FedNow serves as the lanes, while the driving force should be market competition.
Rick Rieder and David Zervos, on the other hand, differ from Waller as they have considerable intersections with the crypto industry. As BlackRock's chief investment officer for global fixed income, Rieder manages over $4 trillion in assets. Recently, he has been quoted in the media with a noticeably "dovish and risk-on" tone. The funds he manages have participated in activities related to projects like Circle and Bullish. David Zervos has been actively involved in and supported several crypto-related projects, having investment or support relationships with eToro, Circle Internet Group (the issuer of USDC), Bullish, and Figure Technology Solutions.
Whoever becomes the new Federal Reserve Chair will face significant choices regarding the direction of monetary policy. Since Powell unexpectedly made "dovish" remarks at the Jackson Hole central bank conference, several major international banks have adjusted their expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut path. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group's FedWatch tool, the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September is 89.8%, while the chance of maintaining the current rate is only 10.2%.
UBS's latest report predicts that due to inflation rates nearing target levels and rising risks in the labor market, the Fed will begin a series of four consecutive rate cuts starting in September, totaling a 100 basis point reduction.
The crypto market has already begun to reflect these expectations. The Fed's signals of a rate cut have further heated market expectations for liquidity easing, prompting some funds to flow into the crypto market ahead of time. The process of the Trump administration selecting a new Federal Reserve Chair has raised serious concerns about the independence of the central bank. Klein noted that what concerns him most is that this interview is taking place against the backdrop of a "survival crisis for the Fed's independence." The structure of the Fed should ensure that its decisions are not influenced by political pressure.
After the interviews, Becerra will submit a final list of candidates to Trump. The ultimate winner of this Federal Reserve version of "The Apprentice" will lead the world's most important central bank, determining the price of money for the U.S. and the global economy.
If Jefferson is elected, he will be the first African American Federal Reserve Chair in history; Waller may continue a relatively dovish monetary policy; while Zervos or Rieder from Wall Street may bring a more market-oriented perspective. Regardless of the outcome, this selection process will become a turning point in the history of the Federal Reserve and the global financial market.
Related: SEC Investigation Report: Key Text Messages from Former Chair Gary Gensler Permanently Lost Due to "Avoidable" Technical Errors
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
