This article is reprinted with permission from "Talking About Li, Talking About the Outside World," and the copyright belongs to the original author.
A few days ago, a friend left a message in the background saying: I plan to invest 10,000 in the cryptocurrency market. What coins can I buy now? How can I quickly earn 1 million in the crypto space?
Looking at the time of their follow, it seems they are a new follower of "Talking About Li, Talking About the Outside World." I don't know what difficulties they are facing in real life that make them so eager to see the crypto market as a money tree, wanting to quickly achieve a hundredfold return in this field.
In terms of results, achieving a hundredfold return in this circle is not a fantasy, but it doesn't mean that you can achieve such results just by casually asking others. If the market could be easily and accurately predicted, or if I could easily know which coin would quickly rise a hundredfold, I would definitely go all in or leverage my investments, rather than spending so much time patiently accumulating coins.
Moreover, those who understand "Talking About Li, Talking About the Outside World" know that my trading style has become increasingly conservative over the years. In terms of content output, I also try to reduce the involvement of market analysis and project analysis. Specifically, in terms of trading, I would only suggest choosing between BTC or ETH. As shown in the image below.
- Buying Bitcoin can no longer change your life.
Of course, I understand the mindset of those who dream of getting rich quickly through the crypto market. To be honest, I had that mindset when I first started trading in 2017. There were many opportunities during that bull market, but it was also a period when I suffered significant losses. Although seven or eight years have passed, the harsh reality has not changed at all. For example, if you want to turn 10,000 into 1 million quickly, the chance of success for ordinary retail investors is basically close to zero.
However, I won't say it's impossible. Even if there is still a certain chance of success, it needs to be assessed based on your own risk tolerance. If you are willing to take such risks, you must also be prepared to lose that 10,000 principal.
Furthermore, when it comes to choosing specific trading targets, comprehensive consideration is also necessary:
1) If you choose to buy BTC or ETH, given the current development of the industry, in the long run, you might make some money, but it seems that this can no longer change your life.
In the past 10 years, BTC has risen from 200 USD to 120,000 USD, achieving a more than 600-fold increase, but that increase has already passed. Even if BTC can continue to rise to 1 million USD in the future, if you participate from now on without considering trading fluctuations, your 10,000 RMB principal would at most reach 100,000 RMB, which is definitely not enough to change your life.
Unless your capital is already substantial, choosing to accumulate BTC or ETH is still one of the better and relatively stable investment strategies, but this no longer falls within the realm of ordinary small retail investors.
2) For you, if you have a small investment scale, choosing altcoins seems to become your remaining option.
This has been the most common situation I have faced in recent years. For example, since I started writing articles in 2022, I have been publicly sharing my investment strategies and plans, suggesting that everyone should persist in accumulating Bitcoin. However, after the new bull market came, I found that more people ultimately chose various altcoins for their positions.
The difference is that some people have indeed made some money on altcoins, while others are completely stuck and unable to extricate themselves, and some have already lost money and exited the market. In fact, we have shared many tools and methods regarding altcoin trading in our past articles. For example, we have mentioned:
Control your position allocation well, do not go all in casually, and always keep your positions flexible.
Control the number of trades you make, do not buy too many coins. Instead of spending too much time and energy researching 20 projects, it is better to focus on studying 2 projects well and placing your bets.
For the targets you are optimistic about in your backup list, you can boldly buy in batches when the upward trend begins, and then actively sell in batches when the market enters a euphoric phase.
Do not casually look for wealth codes or seek comfort in the posts of some bloggers or KOLs. You should quickly establish a trading system or strategy that suits your personal risk preference.
In simple terms, with a small principal, buying Bitcoin can no longer (or is very difficult to) change your life, but this should not be a reason for you to mindlessly buy various altcoins or meme coins. If you must participate in altcoins, then in your altcoin bets, your goal should not only be to make a small investment for a large return and quickly create wealth, but more importantly, to establish your own trading strategy and protect your existing wealth.
- How much can Bitcoin's price still rise?
On January 3 of this year, we published an article celebrating the 16th anniversary of Bitcoin, which introduced the price changes and major events of Bitcoin over the years in a timeline format. Over 16 years, Bitcoin's price skyrocketed from less than 1 USD to 100,000 USD. Last month (August), we witnessed Bitcoin breaking the 120,000 USD price.
Now many people may continue to be concerned about two questions:
How high will Bitcoin's price go in this bull market?
How much can Bitcoin's price rise in the future?
When we started the new round of dollar-cost averaging in 2022, our target expectation for Bitcoin in this bull market was 100,000 - 120,000 USD. This has been mentioned and shared multiple times in our past articles, and this was also our originally planned selling target. We have strictly executed three sell-offs according to plan.
Now our target has basically been achieved, but how high Bitcoin's price will rise in this bull market is still a topic that everyone is eager to discuss. In fact, regarding the overall market trend, we have discussed it many times in our recent articles. Those interested can consider reviewing our recent historical articles.
Here we will simply summarize our previous guesses:
From a time perspective, we still look forward to potential opportunities in the fourth quarter of this year. Bitcoin has a certain probability of continuing to attempt to break historical highs, after which the market will enter a phase of correction. The end of 2026 is our tentative opportunity to re-enter the market, at which point we may see Bitcoin at 40,000 - 50,000 USD. Subsequently, a new round of bull market will begin, and we expect to see Bitcoin at 200,000 USD by the end of 2028 or 2029.
Of course, as always, the above is merely a guess and should not be taken as any investment advice. As for how much Bitcoin's price can rise in the future, that is hard to say. Some say it will rise to 1 million USD, while others say it will rise to 10 million USD. This is subjective; from a long-term perspective, we have always been firm bulls on Bitcoin, and that has never changed and will not change.
Returning to the discussion of this bull market, if we summarize this bull market, we can identify some important time nodes, such as October 2023, which is an important node, as shown in the image below.
Since the beginning of 2023, Bitcoin has experienced several price fluctuations and increases, and the market seems to have shown significant signs of improvement. Although our articles during that period were more focused on project introductions, we gradually began to provide some methods and suggestions from the perspective of the bull market, as shown in the image below.
In fact, from the K-line, we can also see the changes at that time. After experiencing three waves of increases, Bitcoin's price remained stable from August to October 2023, and then began a significant upward trend, officially welcoming a new round of bull market.
So, what happened in the market at that time?
By reviewing some historical articles from that time, we can see that there were several significant events affecting the global economy, such as:
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond briefly exceeded 5%, reaching a new high since 2007.
Data from the U.S. Treasury Department showed that the federal government's fiscal deficit reached nearly 1.7 trillion USD for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2023 (indicating that the U.S. Treasury can no longer cover the budget deficit through regular issuance of long-term bonds).
A new round of conflict broke out between Israel and Palestine.
If we compare the price trends of Bitcoin and gold since then, we can more intuitively observe these changes, as shown in the image below. That is, gold also began a significant upward trend starting in October 2023, with gold prices continuously breaking historical highs.
Furthermore, if we combine some of the events at that time, we can see that starting from October 2023, the U.S. has been trying to cover an increasing deficit with short-term government bonds. Although government bonds are the most preferred investment for investors, they seem reluctant to hold long-term bonds. As interest rates rise (interest rate risk is more sensitive to long-term bonds, and when long-term interest rates are uncertain, investors prefer short-term bonds), the value of bonds faces new issues. Thus, gold (including Bitcoin, which is increasingly viewed as a safe-haven asset) seems to have become a new hedging tool, leading to a rise in its price.
Many people say this bull market feels different; it seems to no longer follow the historical cycles of cryptocurrency. This is understandable because, in addition to existing cyclical patterns (such as the Bitcoin halving cycle), the driving factors for this bull market's rise have become more closely related to changes in the macroeconomy, especially with increasing institutional capital support and participation.
In fact, the deeper logic and reasons behind this are also relatively easy to understand: sovereign debt (here I only refer to the U.S.; China's economy has always been stable and improving, so some individuals should stop leaving comments with unfounded accusations) is facing a new massive bubble. The continuous devaluation of fiat currency and political instability in certain regions will make assets like gold and Bitcoin become sought after, and this trend will certainly continue.
Initially, Bitcoin was just a game for tech geeks; later, it became a game for retail investors to redistribute wealth. Now, Bitcoin is becoming (or has become) a tool for institutions and even nations… More and more capital seems to be fleeing the massive bubble of sovereign debt and turning to assets like gold and Bitcoin.
Many people say that Bitcoin has reached its endpoint, but from a larger time perspective, we seem to be closer to a new starting point. Therefore, in our previous articles, we have always said that this is the worst of times and the best of times; it all depends on how you view the problem and make choices.
Open your mind and imagination; our long-term goal is not just to consider the present and hope to create wealth quickly, but to always hold assets that cannot be confiscated or devalued. This way, when the next bubble arrives, we can live better than others.
Although for small-scale investors, buying Bitcoin can no longer change your life, you should still aim to always hold at least 0.1 Bitcoin as your investment goal in this field. Let's take a look at which tier of Bitcoin you currently belong to, as shown in the image below.
- Losing money is sad, but losing money is even worse.
At the end of the article, let's briefly discuss the topic of security. A few days ago, another friend left me a message saying that 0.5 Bitcoin in their wallet had disappeared and asked me what to do.
By using the Mempool browser and the Arkham tool to track the on-chain records, I found that it had been transferred to another wallet address. After confirmation, I discovered that the other wallet also belonged to this friend, and the wallet's mnemonic phrase was backed up, so the "lost" Bitcoin was easily recoverable.
This friend's issue was more about being unfamiliar with wallet usage; in fact, this isn't really a problem at all. They just need to spend a little more time understanding and familiarizing themselves with it. Compared to this friend, there have been others who sought my help to recover lost assets, but in most cases, I was unable to assist, such as those who accessed phishing links and had their assets stolen by hackers, those who sent funds to the wrong wallet address, those who authorized unknown protocol wallets that were emptied, or those who uninstalled their wallets but forgot to back up their mnemonic phrases… I certainly cannot provide any help in these situations.
According to publicly available information, in just the first half of 2025, personal wallet theft losses reached 1.71 billion USD, as shown in the image below.
It can be said that in the crypto space, losing money is just one aspect; at least when you lose money, you can vent your frustrations at the exchange or project team. However, losing money from your wallet is even sadder, as you have no way to address it and can only suffer in silence.
In fact, whether assets are placed in a CEX, DEX, or stored in hot or cold wallets, none of these options are 100% safe. Security is a relative issue; what matters is how much loss you can tolerate and whether you have measures in place to mitigate losses beforehand.
Here we can discuss the situation in more detail, for example:
- Regarding CEX
Our advice remains unchanged. First, you should choose well-known large exchanges, such as Binance or OKX. Secondly, only keep the necessary funds for flexible trading in the exchange, such as no more than 100,000 USD, while transferring the rest to a private wallet that you can fully control.
CEX does have significant advantages in trading; it is not only convenient but also offers a good user experience. However, they are centralized, and aside from potential asset freezing issues, exchange closures are not uncommon. Just think of the FTX incident during the last bull market.
- Regarding Wallets
Many people believe that cold wallets are safer than hot wallets. Theoretically, this statement is correct, but the safety primarily depends on your own usage. I remember a rather interesting yet tragic case from a few months ago, where a crypto investor bought a cold wallet through Douyin, only to have their 50 million RMB assets stolen instantly.
I must say, compared to the risks of investing, we should also remember: online shopping requires caution. Because 99% of those so-called "brand new and unopened" cold wallets online are fake and may have been tampered with. If you must use a cold wallet, make sure to purchase it through official channels, specifically by buying from the official website of the corresponding wallet and initializing it yourself, which is the safety baseline for using a cold wallet.
As for hot wallets, the main issue still revolves around authorization. I do not recommend using wallets with large asset amounts to authorize protocols you are unfamiliar with. However, if you use a separate Apple phone, install a well-known and reliable wallet application, and properly safeguard your mnemonic phrase while not authorizing random operations, then theoretically, the security should not be a problem.
For example, I currently use two separate Apple phones as wallets (besides the system software, only wallet applications are installed). One is used as a transit wallet (for trading, transferring, and temporary storage), while the other is solely for long-term accumulation (only deposits, no withdrawals).
Of course, I also have various wallet applications or plugins installed on my daily-use phone and computer, such as OKX Wallet, MetaMask, Rabby, Phantom, ArgentX, etc., corresponding to some small asset wallet addresses for testing, Web3 logins, project interactions, etc. I do not pay much attention to authorization and security for these.
Related: Publicly listed companies' Bitcoin (BTC) holdings exceed 1 million, accounting for 5.1% of BTC supply.
Original article: “Buying Bitcoin (BTC) Can No Longer Change Your Life”
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