Key Points:
The rise in demand for government bonds and gold highlights concerns about an economic recession, limiting Bitcoin's (BTC) ability to maintain a bullish trend.
Although Bitcoin remains highly correlated with stocks, structural catalysts such as the inclusion of Strategy (MSTR) in the S&P 500 index may change market sentiment.
Bitcoin (BTC) failed to continue its bullish momentum on Thursday. As U.S. labor market data fell short of expectations, traders flocked to government bonds for safety. Gold prices reached an all-time high, raising doubts in the market about Bitcoin's (BTC) ability to hold the $108,000 level. Currently, recession expectations are dominating investor sentiment.
Meanwhile, the stock market is performing positively. Market participants are increasingly confident in the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts. In contrast, the cryptocurrency market is under pressure, with BTC briefly falling below $110,000. Unlike digital assets, stocks benefit more directly from lower financing costs and reduced household debt burdens, both of which help stimulate consumption.
The yield on the U.S. 2-year Treasury bond fell to 3.60%, a four-month low, indicating that investors are willing to accept lower returns for safety. The surge in demand was driven by an ADP report released on Thursday, showing that the U.S. private sector added 54,000 jobs in August, a significant decrease from 106,000 in July. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) also reported a contraction in overall employment.
The market widely expects the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 16-17 to result in a 0.25 percentage point rate cut, bringing the benchmark rate down to 4.25%. However, investors remain skeptical about the Fed's ability to maintain a loose policy in the long term.
CME FedWatch tool data shows that the market's expectation for rates to drop to 3.75% or below by January 2026 has decreased from 72% a month ago to 65%. This tool calculates the implied probabilities based on federal funds futures prices before the Fed's January 28 meeting. A report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released on Friday will serve as an important guide for risk asset allocation.
The inflationary pressures resulting from lower financing costs could ultimately weaken economic growth, especially in the context of high tariffs. Therefore, while rate cuts may provide short-term benefits, the strong demand for gold and short-term Treasuries highlights ongoing risk aversion, which could pressure cryptocurrencies. The 60-day correlation between the Nasdaq index and Bitcoin (BTC) is as high as 72%, indicating a strong alignment in their movements.
The factors that could break this pattern remain unclear, but some analysts point to the potential inclusion of Strategy (MSTR) in the S&P 500 index. According to Bitpace's Chief Revenue Officer Meryem Habibi, this inclusion "solidifies the legitimacy of the entire asset class." This move would force index funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking the S&P 500 to buy MSTR shares.
Even with high demand for U.S. Treasuries, fiscal imbalances could still undermine market confidence in the dollar, a scenario that has historically favored Bitcoin (BTC). Reports indicate that Bank of America analysts expect the euro to strengthen against the dollar by 2026 due to trade frictions and declining institutional credibility.
In the short term, risk aversion may prompt Bitcoin (BTC) to test the $108,000 level again. However, the rising demand for short-term Treasuries should not be seen as a long-term bearish signal.
Related: Even with $300 million outflow from spot Ethereum ETFs, ETH derivatives still turn bullish
Original: “Bitcoin (BTC) May Drop to $108K as Investors Fly to Safer Assets”
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
