The 30-year government bond yields in the UK, Germany, and France have reached multi-year highs, reflecting a global "debt storm." The UK's fiscal "black hole" and political turmoil have heightened market concerns, while Germany's fiscal expansion has driven up borrowing costs in the Eurozone. France is weighed down by political crises and budget disputes. Rising global inflation expectations and fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields are the main driving factors. Countries need to balance tax increases, spending, and economic growth, with continued pressure on the bond market in the short term.
The European Central Bank will hold a meeting on September 12, the Bank of Japan will have its regular meeting at the end of September, and the Federal Reserve will also face the question of whether to cut interest rates on September 18. The expectation of a rate cut by the FOMC has risen to 97% today, with traders betting on a rate cut, which seems certain for now. There will be significant volatility with the non-farm payroll data tomorrow night.
Gold has reached a historic high, and silver has also hit a new phase high, so we are paying attention to whether Bitcoin can serve as a safe haven.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin's rebound remains relatively weak. It stood above MA120 yesterday but has fallen back to test the support at 108,400 today. U.S. stocks have been fluctuating at high levels recently, and September is known as a "cursed" month, so we are currently watching whether the market will rally before the rate cut or decline first. From Bitcoin's perspective, it is still in a short-term rebound, but the strength is weak. With less than two weeks until the rate cut, a pullback is expected afterward, and the probability of an increase in October is relatively high.
Bitcoin reached a high of 112,600 before pulling back to support at 108,400, and the daily line continues to fall below MA120. We should first focus on the support at 108,400; if it breaks, there will be further pullback.
Support: 107,000 to 108,400
Resistance: 113,500 to 115,300 to 117,400
Ethereum
Ethereum is still oscillating in a high-level range, having not stayed above MA20 for about a week, and there is still a chance to test MA60. I have always believed that Ethereum's current cost-performance ratio is not high, so we are still waiting for a better entry opportunity, specifically at the bottom of the range at 4,060, or even a false breakdown to the 3,800 to 3,900 range.
Yesterday, there was a descending wedge on the 4-hour chart that has also fallen back. Currently, the rebound is weak, and for short-term traders, they can consider shorting between 4,200 and 4,500.
Support: 3,800 to 3,900 to 4,060
Resistance: 4,500 to 4,788 to 4,956
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This article is time-sensitive and for reference only; it will be updated in real-time.
Focusing on K-line technical research, we aim to win global investment opportunities. Public account: BTC Trading Prince Fusu
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