Key Points:
If the four-year cycle theory is valid, Bitcoin is entering the starting point of a bear market.
BTC price targets include $50,000 by October 2026.
Bitcoin is currently facing a test of a resistance trend line, which may trigger a retest of the $100,000 support level.
Bitcoin (BTC) has only one month left until the end of the four-year cycle and may drop to $50,000.
Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of the crypto analysis platform Alphractal, recently suggested a BTC price target of $140,000.
The bull market has retraced 15% from its historical high and, after the latest round of correction, Bitcoin faces a new round of tests.
In the face of an unclear market outlook, Wedson stated that the bear market could start as early as October.
He posted a "repeating fractal cycle" chart on the X platform, showing that BTC/USD is approaching the historical starting point of a bear market.
He said, "Of course, it would be rash to conclude that Bitcoin has only one month left in this cycle based solely on this chart."
Wedson pointed out that this cycle is significantly different from previous ones, mainly due to the entry of large institutional investors and Bitcoin's rise as a mainstream asset.
He added, "The real question is whether this fractal can maintain its reliability amid rising ETF speculation and growing institutional demand."
If the U.S. macro asset bear market coincides with the fractal cycle timeline, it could deal a fatal blow to Bitcoin bulls.
As discussions about the validity of the four-year price cycle intensify in 2025, the status of this cycle has become a core issue.
Once October arrives, if bearish forces strengthen, the bottom price target for BTC will be highly challenging, now with the addition of a new target for October 2026. Wedson concluded:
Cointelegraph previously reported that market participants tend to view the retest of the $100,000 support level as part of the current correction.
A well-known trader even believes this event will occur this week. He stated that if the bulls fail to hold the $100,000 level, the bull market will be declared over.
Since the adjustment in mid-August, BTC/USD is currently attempting to break through a downward trend line that has served as a price ceiling.
Renowned trader Killa stated on the X platform on Thursday: "This chart determines whether BTC breaks below $100,000 or sets a new high."
Related: Despite WLFI burning 47 million tokens, whales still lost millions due to a 40% drop in Trump-related tokens.
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