Key Points:
Bitcoin may avoid a significant drop in September and could soon aim for new highs.
A weaker dollar and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could become significant tailwinds for Bitcoin's price.
Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to close August with a decline, marking the first down month since April, raising concerns about a worsening downward trend in early September.
Bitcoin has a notable tendency to decline in September.
Since 2013, Bitcoin has closed lower in 8 out of the last 12 Septembers, with an average return of approximately -3.80%.
Market veterans refer to this as the "September Effect," where traders typically lock in profits after the summer rally or readjust their portfolios before the fourth quarter. For example, since 1928, the S&P 500 has had an average return of about -1.20% in September.
Bitcoin often trades in sync with broader risk assets, making it susceptible to seasonal drag.
However, since 2013, whenever Bitcoin has experienced a significant drop in August, September has typically recorded gains, indicating that sellers may act preemptively.
Analyst Rekt Fencer stated that "a September crash will not happen" this year, citing Bitcoin's performance in 2017 as evidence.
Comparing the charts of 2017 and 2025 reveals nearly identical trends. In both cycles, Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline at the end of August, followed by stabilization at key support levels and a strong rebound.
In 2017, this support test became the last shakeout before BTC's price soared to $20,000.
Currently, Bitcoin is once again oscillating within the $105,000 to $110,000 range, which is expected to serve as the starting point for a new parabolic rise.
Earlier this year, the $105,000-$110,000 range was a resistance level, but it has now turned into a support level, forming a typical bullish structure in technical analysis.
An important bullish signal comes from the so-called "hidden bullish divergence." Despite the decline in Bitcoin's price, the drop in its relative strength index (RSI), a commonly used momentum indicator, has not been significant.
This typically indicates that the market is not as weak as the price charts suggest, implying that buyers are quietly returning.
Analyst ZYN suggests that due to these technical patterns, Bitcoin may reach new highs exceeding $124,500 in the next 4-6 weeks, providing a rationale for a potential rebound in September.
As the U.S. economy slows and expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts rise, forex traders have turned bearish on the dollar. They anticipate an 8% decline in the dollar this year; meanwhile, Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve has further exacerbated the dollar's downward trend.
As of Sunday, the 52-week correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the dollar index (DXY) has dropped to -0.25, the lowest level in two years.
If the dollar continues to weaken, this change will increase the likelihood of Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market rising in September.
Analyst Ash Crypto stated last week: "The Federal Reserve will start the money printing machine in the fourth quarter of this year," and added:
Related: Bitcoin ETP now holds the largest supply of BTC at 7%
Original article: “Will Bitcoin (BTC) Price Drop in September?”
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