The monthly line for Bitcoin is about to close with support at 105,000. If it opens next month and directly breaks below this line, it will increase the risk of further declines. Yesterday, it broke below the MA120. If it cannot quickly recover in the next few days, there is still a risk of decline. The 4-hour chart has shown a rebound in a descending channel, but as long as it cannot reclaim the key resistance level, the downtrend will continue. On the 1-hour level, although it broke below yesterday's low of 108,666, it continued to decline by over 1,000 points, so we need to pay attention to the strength of the rebound in the short term.

For Ethereum, the daily ascending support line has been broken, and we are now focusing on the 4060 M head and shoulders support. Once it breaks below this, it will accelerate the decline. We previously warned to reduce positions after a spike to 4956, and the daily false breakout has consistently indicated that this position is not cost-effective. This includes not participating in subsequent short-term pullbacks; we need to wait for a more cost-effective position.

London gold reached a high of 3453, breaking through a daily converging triangle. This is the fifth attempt to challenge the 3500 resistance, so we need to pay attention to whether gold can move in tandem with Bitcoin. The probability of a rate cut on September 18 has remained at 86%, so the likelihood of a rate cut is still high. The three major U.S. stock indices have shown short-term pullbacks, especially the Nasdaq index, which has been affected by Nvidia's earnings report, leading to a short-term decline. Therefore, we will continue to monitor this situation. The previous support that broke through the previous high cannot fall back; otherwise, both cryptocurrencies and stocks will face risks.

Bitcoin

The daily line for Bitcoin has dropped to a low of 107,350. In the 4-hour chart, there are two spikes, and we are looking for a rebound here, with resistance at 110,000. This is also the MA120 resistance, indicating that if it cannot recover in the next two to three days, the downtrend will continue.

The monthly and weekly lines close at the same time, so we need to pay attention to the opening price next week. The weekly line has pulled back to MA20, and the MACD has crossed below the zero axis with the fast and slow lines intersecting, while the volume has been decreasing. According to the OBV indicator, when the yellow and white lines cross upwards, it generally brings a wave of market movement, but currently, both lines are declining at a similar rate, so caution is warranted. The range of 98,000 to 100,000 is strong support and is near the 0.886 of the shark pattern; we will focus on this support line in the future.

Support: 98,000 to 100,000

Resistance: 110,000 to 113,500 to 117,500

Ethereum

The daily false breakout has now also fallen below MA20, focusing on the support at 4060. There is a temporary short-term rebound, but it still cannot be ruled out that it will continue to decline.

From the weekly perspective, 4060 is quite critical, coinciding with the previous breakout level. The daily chart shows a shark pattern pointing to 3500, and another possibility is that 4060 will create a box range and then have a false breakdown followed by a rebound. This situation has already occurred twice consecutively.

Support: 3500 to 3800 to 4060

Resistance: 4665 to 4788 to 4957

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