Since Bitcoin fell to a low of $16,000 in 2022, the push from Wall Street and U.S. policies has become the biggest momentum for price recovery. The global asset management giant BlackRock launched a Bitcoin spot ETF with a scale of $83 trillion, symbolizing mainstream finance's favor towards crypto assets.
At the same time, U.S. President Trump, during his re-election campaign, promised to establish a "U.S. Bitcoin Strategic Reserve" similar to gold reserves, and officially ordered its promotion in April this year. When Wall Street financial giants and the policies of the world's most developed economies reach a consensus, the institutionalization process of Bitcoin seems to be irreversible.
With the changing preferences of the new generation of investors and the dual support of finance and policy, crypto assets are moving towards an unprecedented era. This wave of funds, amounting to $83 trillion, is expected to propel Bitcoin to become the new benchmark for global wealth and will give rise to a new generation of tycoons centered around crypto assets.
Looking back at Bitcoin's market yesterday, the price fell below the $110,000 mark again on the 29th, reaching a low of $107,281, and as of the time of writing, the quote was $108,579, with a decline of about 1.26% in the past 24 hours.
The intraday pattern has not yet improved, but the market is sending two completely different signals: various indicators are lighting up red, warning that the bull market may end prematurely. However, on the other hand, the vast majority of investors remain firmly bullish, betting on a continued rise by the end of the year.
Bitcoin Monthly Chart
According to technical analysis, Bitcoin's 14-month RSI indicator is showing a bearish divergence signal, meaning that while Bitcoin's price continues to reach new highs, the RSI index is gradually declining, indicating a slowdown in upward momentum. Bearish divergence appearing at the monthly level often means that the upward trend may lose strength or even reverse.
The above chart shows that although Bitcoin set new highs in July and August of this year, breaking through last December's peak, the RSI index has declined, forming "higher lows." This divergence occurred when Bitcoin touched a long-term resistance line, which is formed by connecting the peaks of the two bull markets in 2017 and 2021.
However, market funds are still conveying optimistic signals. Recent large off-exchange transactions show that institutions and whales are actively positioning for the second half of the year, with December Bitcoin spread long options trading being the most active, with prices concentrated in the $125,000-$160,000 range, indicating that main funds are betting on the possibility of Bitcoin's price breaking new highs by the end of the year.
Bitcoin 4-Hour Chart
The above chart shows that Bitcoin's price has formed strong support at $107,261, indicating signs of stabilization. From a technical indicator perspective, the market is at a critical turning point. The Fibonacci retracement levels show that 23.6% ($111,324) is the first rebound target, 38.2% ($113,387) is the second resistance area, 50% ($115,687) constitutes strong resistance, and 61.8% ($117,989) is the golden ratio resistance level.
Currently, Bitcoin's price is oscillating in the 0%-23.6% range. If it can hold the $107,261 support level, a rebound is expected. The Bollinger Bands indicator shows that the price is running near the lower band, in the oversold area, with the middle band at $111,500 coinciding with the Fibonacci 23.6% level, forming a short-term rebound target. In the KDJ indicator, the K value is 20.78, the D value is 21.52, and the J value is 19.31, all of which have entered the oversold area, potentially forming a golden cross rebound signal at any time.
The MACD indicator shows that both the DIF line and the DEA line are running below the zero axis. Although it is still in a bearish trend, the MACD green histogram has shifted from expanding to contracting, indicating that the downward momentum is gradually weakening. Overall, there are signs of stabilization, and conditions for a rebound are present.
In summary, the following suggestions are provided for reference:
Key rebound target ranges to focus on: First target $111,300-$111,500 (coinciding with the middle band of the Bollinger Bands and the Fibonacci 23.6% level), second target $113,300-$113,800 (Fibonacci 38.2%), strong resistance level $115,500-$115,700 (Fibonacci 50%). The risk to be wary of is if it falls below the $107,261 support level, which may accelerate the decline to test the $105,000 mark. The current technical analysis shows that the market is in an oversold state, with a high probability of a rebound in the short term, but close attention should be paid to the defense of key support levels.
Giving you a hundred percent accurate suggestion is not as good as providing you with the right mindset and trend. After all, teaching a man to fish is better than giving him a fish. The suggestion is to earn for a moment, but learning the mindset is to earn for a lifetime! What matters is the mindset, grasping the trend, and planning the layout and positions. What I can do is use my practical experience to help everyone, guiding your investment decisions and management in the right direction.
Writing time: (2025-08-30, 18:30)
(Text - Master Coin) Disclaimer: Online publication has delays, and the above suggestions are for reference only. The author is dedicated to research and analysis in the fields of Bitcoin, Ethereum, altcoins, forex, stocks, etc., having been involved in the financial market for many years and possessing rich practical operation experience. Investment carries risks; enter the market with caution.
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