Master Discusses Hot Topics:
First, let's talk about Cook's temporary motion that is set to open today. Chuanzi must be feeling a thousand anxieties right now. Why? Because the September interest rate meeting is just around the corner, and if he doesn't see a rate cut, his expression will definitely be worse than anyone else's.
In plain language, this old guy is determined to stuff more of his people into the Federal Reserve to hold the chips in his hands. The problem is that old Powell is still sitting in his chair, and Chuanzi can't win this struggle against the Federal Reserve in the short term.
The market understands this as well; don't expect Chuanzi to turn things around before Powell steps down. Even if he wants to gamble, it has to be postponed until after May next year. For him, this is simply torture.
Right now, what can really influence the market is not Chuanzi's random antics, but inflation data and labor data. Tonight's PCE is also a key focus this week, and last week both Nick and Powell hinted at it. The Cleveland Fed's expectations are also similar, with little difference from last month's data.
If the core PCE can stabilize, then the market can at least take a breather, feeling that inflation is not out of control. But the shadow of tariffs still looms, and inflation rising is almost a foregone conclusion. What's worse is that the current data hasn't fully accounted for the effects of tariffs.
The probability of a rate cut in September is locked in, but don't take it for granted, and don't think this is the end of the story. What's more critical is the space for easing after the rate cut; this is what Chuanzi really wants, to lay the groundwork for his future policies.
Back to the market, Bitcoin has managed to hold the short-term average cost line at 108K, but who dares to guarantee how long it can hold? Just because it held this time doesn't mean it will be stable next time.
The market is moving in ways that are unexpectedly for most people, which is the most frustrating part of the market. If you're bound by your own positions, then you're done for. So be rational and think about whether your position is too heavy, leading you to draw some biased conclusions.
This wave has indeed brought a bit of a rebound as it touched the cost price for short-term holders, and we can look towards the previous highs. But don't celebrate too early; we need to see if 115K can be broken.
I've mentioned that this position is a critical line; it can also be seen from the market value and cost ratio. Since the market started in April, it has been stuck between 115K and 127K. However, in the past few days, it broke down on August 19, attempted to break through on August 22 but failed, and then dropped again on August 24.
It can be basically confirmed that the previous upward trend has been torn apart. If this rebound can't surpass 115K, it will signal the complete initiation of a downward trend. If it can't hold 108K, then prepare to welcome 104K, folks.
If it can return to the previous high area, then we need to see whether momentum and demand have weakened. If they have weakened, it's time to reduce positions and run; don't hesitate. If they haven't weakened, then treat it as a continuation of the trend.
Ethereum is also quite interesting; it held strong while Bitcoin was falling, looking quite robust. But as soon as Bitcoin rebounded, it got weak again. Now the data shows that Ethereum's market share is dropping, while Bitcoin remains stable.
Ethereum's hourly level is already weakening, with key support at 4450. If it drops below that, there won't be any decent support in the short term, and we can only look at 4160. Especially if 4450 is lost, the daily line will drop directly to the lower track, completely entering a weak zone.
However, from another perspective, Ethereum is forming an ascending wedge on the 4-hour chart. The lower trend line was precisely touched before rebounding, indicating that a lot of people in the market are watching this line. If it can hold above 4300, then a new high this weekend or next week is also possible.
But if it crashes and drops below 4300, creating a lower low, then don't think about it; the large-scale bullish structure will be directly invalidated, and the market will enter a large range of fluctuations.
Resistance Levels Reference:
Second Resistance Level: 114500
First Resistance Level: 113000
Support Levels Reference:
Second Support Level: 111200
First Support Level: 109600
Yesterday, the key pressure level of 112.5K was tested but couldn't hold, and now it has turned into strong resistance. The trend reversal has failed, and in the short term, it will continue to fluctuate within the range; 111.2K to 112.5K can be viewed as a box.
In the short term, pay attention to the 20MA on the 4-hour chart; if it breaks down, be cautious of another wave of selling. Selling pressure has clearly come in, and without accompanying volume, don't expect an easy breakthrough; instead, the risk of a decline is greater.
Currently, the overall situation has returned to a downward channel, with 113K acting as strong resistance; don't think about it until it breaks through. As long as Bitcoin doesn't break down, being able to move sideways within the box is the best scenario.
The first resistance at 113K is a short-term local high; it must first break 112.5K to have a chance of a breakthrough; otherwise, continue to look bearish. The second resistance at 114.5K can be tested if the volume suddenly increases, but if the volume doesn't follow, it will still hover around 113K.
The first support at 111.2K, if it doesn't break, can still be considered as box fluctuation; once it is lost, be careful of a downward probe. The second support at 109.6K, if even the psychological level of 111K can't hold, then we can only look down, and the short-term low may be pierced at any time.
8.29 Master’s Wave Strategy:
Long Entry Reference: Accumulate long positions in the range of 111200-111800, Target: 113000-114500
Short Entry Reference: Not currently applicable
If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than making hasty conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performers; today they screenshot long positions, tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they "catch the top and bottom every time," but in reality, it's all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don't be blinded by flashy data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!
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