For investors, it is essential to grasp the structural opportunities brought by ETH while also being wary of the volatility risks arising from short-term overheating, maintaining rationality and patience in the verification of macro and on-chain data.

Summary

On August 22, 2025, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell released a clear dovish signal at the Jackson Hole annual meeting, suggesting a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September. The market's expectations for a rate cut surged to 91.1%, driving a collective rebound in risk assets. The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, and the total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market returned to $4.1 trillion. ETH rose 14.33% in a single day, reaching a historic high of $4,956, leading to a broad increase in Layer 2 and staking sectors.

There was a noticeable on-chain capital rotation from BTC to ETH, with large whales increasing their ETH holdings, and some top funds amplifying leverage through rolling positions. Arthur Hayes and others predict that if ETH breaks its historical high, the upward potential could extend to $10,000–$20,000. However, there are still cautious voices within the Federal Reserve, and the liquidity environment remains volatile, suggesting that the short-term market may face dual tests of overheating sentiment and data verification.

I. Macroeconomic Background: The Federal Reserve's Policy Shift

On August 22, 2025, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting became the core event for global markets this week. In his final public appearance during his term, he unexpectedly released a clear dovish signal, opening the door for a possible rate cut in September. This statement not only reshaped market expectations for future monetary policy but also directly ignited the rally in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. To understand the market's intense reaction, it is necessary to analyze the Federal Reserve's policy dilemma, the key messages from the speech, and the market's immediate interpretation from a macro perspective.

Since the beginning of 2025, the Federal Reserve's policy environment has been in a dilemma. On one hand, the high tariff policies implemented by President Trump have significantly raised the prices of certain goods, putting upward pressure on inflation levels again. If the Fed maintains a tightening stance, it can continue to suppress inflation, but the cost could be long-term high interest rates that may trigger turmoil in financial markets and even lead to a concentrated outbreak of credit risk. On the other hand, there have been clear signs of cooling in the U.S. labor market since the beginning of the year, with significant slowdowns in job growth. If the Fed ignores the downside risks in employment, it would violate its dual mandate of "maximum employment," potentially triggering broader social discontent. This "no-win" policy dilemma led the market to generally expect Powell to maintain a hawkish stance, continuing to prioritize inflation control. Some market participants even likened him to "Volcker 2.0," using a tough monetary policy to exchange for long-term price stability and policy credibility. However, the actual situation is far more complex than the market imagines: the nature of inflationary pressure is more akin to a one-time level jump rather than a persistent vicious spiral; while the signs of slowdown in the labor market are more real and enduring. This risk assessment ultimately prompted Powell to unexpectedly "turn dovish" in this speech.

The core of Powell's speech lies in the redefinition of risk balance. Over the past two years, the Fed's communication framework has primarily emphasized "upward risks to inflation," while the labor market was viewed as sufficiently resilient. However, at Jackson Hole, he explicitly pointed out that the labor market is in a "peculiar balance"—both supply and demand are slowing, and job growth is significantly below levels seen in recent years. If this trend continues, it could quickly evolve into a wave of layoffs and a rapid rise in unemployment rates. This statement marks the first time the Fed has placed the downside risks to employment on par with or even higher priority than inflation. Additionally, his assessment of inflation is equally thought-provoking. Powell acknowledged that tariffs have indeed pushed up the prices of certain goods but believes that their nature is more of a "one-time" effect rather than a long-term risk. In other words, the Fed does not intend to maintain high interest rates due to short-term price increases but prefers to observe the speed of their digestion. More importantly, the Fed officially announced a revision of its policy framework at this annual meeting, removing the "average 2% inflation target" from the 2020 framework and returning to a "flexible inflation targeting regime." This change means that the Fed will no longer deliberately pursue long-term average compensation but will emphasize dynamic adjustments based on actual economic data. This return to flexibility allows it greater maneuverability when facing conflicts between employment and inflation targets. Finally, Powell emphasized that if employment risks materialize, the Fed may take "preemptive" actions to avoid a cliff-like decline in the labor market. This is almost a public hint at a rate cut in September.

The market reacted very quickly to this speech. According to CME FedWatch, before Powell's speech, the market estimated a 75.5% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, which quickly rose to 91.1% after the speech. In other words, the market has regarded the rate cut as a "done deal." In terms of asset prices, risk assets collectively rebounded: the three major U.S. stock indices closed up more than 1.5%, and the market capitalization of crypto assets returned to $4.1 trillion. Notably, ETH surged over 14% in a single day, breaking the historical high of $4,887, becoming the biggest beneficiary of the rate cut expectations. The underlying logic is that once the rate cut begins, the liquidity environment improves, and funds will be reallocated to high-growth, high-elasticity assets, with ETH as the core asset of the new financial infrastructure, possessing a natural advantage in absorbing liquidity. Of course, the market's fervent sentiment needs to be tempered. On one hand, the strengthening expectations of a rate cut indeed provide an opportunity for asset prices to rise; on the other hand, there are still differing voices within the Fed, with some officials reminding that inflation risks cannot be ignored. If the CPI and non-farm payroll data for August perform strongly, the market's expectations for a rate cut may still face adjustments. Overall, the message released by this speech is that the Fed is gradually transitioning from a hawkish "inflation priority" to a dovish "employment priority," and this shift in risk balance provides a new growth window for risk assets, especially in the crypto market.

Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting not only changed expectations in the U.S. interest rate market but also triggered a synchronized response across major global assets. First, U.S. stocks surged, with the three major indices rising between 1.5% and 1.9%, with technology and growth sectors benefiting first. Crypto-related stocks stood out, with SharpLink rising 15.7%, Bitmine up 12.1%, and Coinbase up 6.5%, as funds re-priced the liquidity dividends brought by future rate cuts. Secondly, the dollar and interest rate markets adjusted in sync. The dollar index fell significantly after the speech, indicating an increase in risk appetite; federal funds futures quickly priced in a high probability scenario of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with the overall interest rate curve shifting downward. Long-term Treasury yields fell, further reinforcing bets on a loose environment. Finally, the crypto asset sector quickly benefited, with the total market capitalization rebounding to $4.1 trillion. Among them, ETH had the highest contribution, breaking its historical high in a single day, leading to a broad increase in Layer 2 and staking sectors, with on-chain capital showing a trend of gathering from BTC to ETH. Overall, the global market has entered a new phase of "increased risk appetite + liquidity repricing," with the crypto market at the forefront.

II. Structural Changes in the Crypto Market

Against the macro backdrop of Powell's dovish speech, the crypto market has experienced structural differentiation. The performance of different sectors reveals changes in capital flow paths and market logic. Overall, BTC is facing capital outflows and structural selling pressure, while ETH has become the core driving force behind the new high breakthrough, spreading risk appetite across the entire market to altcoins, signaling the onset of Altseason. BTC performed poorly this week; although it received support from the 60-day moving average on a technical level, the overall trend remains weak. In terms of capital, BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of as much as $1.165 billion in a single week, becoming a major factor suppressing prices. This indicates that institutional investors have chosen to take profits or shift positions in the short term, weakening the marginal buying demand for BTC. More concerning is that BTC's market share continues to decline. Over the past few months, BTC dominance has been in a downward channel, indicating that its function as a "safe haven anchor" is weakening. The shift in capital risk appetite towards high-elasticity ETH and alt assets challenges BTC's dominant position in market pricing. Combining on-chain data and ETF capital movements, it can be inferred that BTC is currently more of a "source of funds" rather than a "destination for funds." ETH has become the absolute core of the market this week, rising 14.33% in a single day, breaking the historical high of $4,887.5, with a weekly increase of 6.88%. This is not only a price breakthrough but also a turning point in market structure: ETH has successfully guided capital rotation, establishing its core asset status in the new cycle. On-chain data shows that in the past 24 hours, the liquidation amount for ETH reached $368 million, surpassing BTC, indicating that the passive squeeze of shorts is an important driver of the rapid price increase. This "short squeeze" market often means that the price breakthrough is supported by real capital inflows rather than purely sentiment-driven.

The rise of ETH has also produced significant "spillover effects." Related ecological sectors have seen widespread increases: Layer 2 sector: Arbitrum (ARB) rose 9.5%, reflecting the market's repricing of the scaling ecosystem; staking sector: SSV saw a daily increase of over 25.5%, indicating accelerated capital inflow into ETH staking and distributed validation sectors; restaking: ETHFI rose 20.7%, with this emerging narrative quickly responding to the market. These data indicate that ETH not only broke through its own price but also drove the overall valuation system of the ecosystem upward, exhibiting a "liquidity magnet" effect. As ETH capital gathers and breaks new highs, the altcoin market has become fully active. There are significant signs of capital rotation, with non-ETH assets generally receiving spillover dividends. The continued decline in BTC dominance is a key feature of the initiation of Altseason. Historically, when this signal lights up, it indicates that in the coming weeks, market capital will further spread to mid- and small-cap tokens. This wave of upward momentum driven by ETH may form a top-down transmission: from ETH → ecological sectors → high market cap altcoins → mid- and small-cap tokens, layer by layer releasing risk appetite.

However, it is important to note that Altseason is often accompanied by high volatility and high risk. The capital in the altcoin sector is more speculative, and there may be rapid rotations and concentrated liquidations in the short term. Therefore, although indicators suggest that the altcoin market may welcome weeks of prosperity, its sustainability depends on whether macro liquidity materializes and whether ETH can maintain its high position. Overall, the crypto market is undergoing a structural repricing. BTC, as a "source of existing liquidity," is temporarily under pressure, while ETH has become the "core asset of the new cycle," driving a rebound in overall market risk appetite and igniting the altcoin rally. If the Federal Reserve officially cuts rates in September, ETH is expected to continue its strong performance and further spread Altseason; however, if macro data reverses or capital inflows are insufficient, the short-term market may also face severe corrections.

Overall, this week, the movements of on-chain whales exhibited three main characteristics: BTC capital outflow, ETH becoming the core asset of the new cycle; rolling positions and leverage driving the market, but also accumulating potential liquidation risks; leading investors choosing to concentrate their bets on ETH, reinforcing market consensus. This indicates that the rise of ETH is not solely reliant on retail sentiment but is a result of the migration of real capital and the expansion of leverage. However, the aggressive operations of whale capital also mean that short-term risks are increasing; if macro data and rate cut expectations fall short, the market may quickly reverse. In the coming weeks, the movements of on-chain capital will remain a key variable in observing whether ETH can stabilize at high levels. If capital continues to flow in, ETH's strong pattern is likely to persist; if whales begin to reduce positions or lock in profits, the market should be wary of high-level fluctuations and deep corrections.

III. Core Logic Analysis of ETH and BTC

Ethereum (ETH) broke its historical high this week, becoming the most dazzling focus of global risk assets. From macro policies to on-chain ecosystems, and to capital allocation logic, ETH is undergoing a multidimensional value reassessment. Unlike purely sentiment-driven movements, the current rise is underpinned by solid macro and fundamental support. The price performance of ETH is highly correlated with the macro monetary environment. Powell's dovish signal at Jackson Hole rapidly heated market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September to over 90%. A rate cut means lower capital costs and expanded liquidity, and high-growth and high-elasticity assets often benefit first. Compared to BTC's "store of value" attribute, ETH is closer to a "risk asset," with its price being more elastic to marginal changes in liquidity. Once the rate cut is implemented, global capital allocation will increase exposure to technology, growth, and digital assets, with ETH being the primary recipient in the crypto space. Therefore, ETH's new high reflects not only on-chain logic but also the pricing of macro liquidity expectations.

ETH's ecological advantages are the core logic for its price increase in the medium to long term. Since the "Merge" in 2022, ETH has transitioned to a PoS mechanism, and staking has become its core value capture method. The current staking rate across the network is steadily increasing, with staked ETH accounting for over one-third. As staking yields are gradually viewed as "bond-like assets," ETH has become a unique asset that combines growth and cash flow attributes. Meanwhile, the Layer 2 scaling ecosystem is accelerating its development. Active users and transaction volumes on networks like Arbitrum and Optimism continue to grow, significantly reducing transaction costs and enhancing network scalability. This not only strengthens ETH's network utility but also supports its positioning in global financial infrastructure. The emerging restaking sector is also attracting capital. Projects like ETHFI are enhancing capital efficiency by utilizing staked ETH assets in a compounded manner. The continuous influx of funds not only drives the prices of related tokens up but also further solidifies ETH's central position. It can be said that ETH's ecosystem is forming a triangular support of "staking—restaking—Layer 2 expansion."

In terms of market expectations, leading investors generally hold an optimistic view of ETH. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated in an interview that as long as ETH breaks its historical high, its upward space will be "completely opened," with a target range possibly between $10,000 and $20,000. This indicates that the market has regarded ETH as the protagonist of a new cycle. In the short term, ETH's rapid rise has been accompanied by large-scale short liquidations. In the past 24 hours, the liquidation amount for ETH reached $368 million, surpassing BTC. This indicates that the market breakout is not only driven by active buying but also a result of passive short squeezes. This "short squeeze" effect often reinforces short-term gains but can also lead to greater volatility when sentiment recedes. In the medium term, whether ETH's price can extend further depends on two factors: first, whether the Fed's rate cut is truly implemented and whether its easing path can be sustained; second, whether the ETH ecosystem can maintain high growth, especially in staking and Layer 2 activity. If both macro and ecological benefits materialize, ETH's valuation system may undergo a repricing, making a price breakthrough of $10,000 not out of reach. In the long term, ETH's value is gradually transforming from a "speculative asset" to a "new financial infrastructure." Whether in decentralized finance (DeFi), restaking protocols, or blockchain-native applications, ETH is the core of settlement and collateral. As institutional investors' acceptance of crypto assets increases, ETH is expected to become an indispensable part of global investment portfolios.

Despite the clear logic of ETH, potential risks must still be heeded: macro uncertainty: if the August CPI or non-farm data exceeds expectations, the Fed's rate cut expectations may fall short, potentially hindering ETH's upward momentum; leverage risk: the rolling positions and high leverage of on-chain whales increase market fragility, and once prices correct, it may trigger a chain liquidation; regulatory risk: regulatory dynamics in the U.S. and other major economies may still significantly impact the pace of capital inflows. The logic behind ETH's rise can be summarized as: "macro liquidity turning point + continuous ecological expansion + proactive capital rotation." Against the backdrop of strengthened rate cut expectations, ETH's price breakthrough is not only sentiment-driven but also a result of structural market reconstruction. In the coming months, ETH is expected to continue acting as the "cycle leader," and its performance will determine the overall risk appetite level in the crypto market.

In this round of market activity, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) have shown a clear divergence in performance. ETH reached a historical high and attracted significant capital inflows, while BTC has remained relatively subdued, with a price drop of 3.41% this week, closing at $113,478. As the "leader" of crypto assets, BTC's temporary fading has drawn market attention: why has BTC failed to benefit from the rate cut expectations? What are the challenges and opportunities ahead? BTC has long been viewed as "digital gold," with its logic primarily based on "inflation resistance" and "store of value." However, in the current macro environment, this logic has weakened to some extent: different nature of inflation: current inflationary pressures in the U.S. mainly stem from tariffs and structural factors, rather than widespread demand overheating. This means that the market's demand for "safe-haven assets" is declining, while preference for "growth assets" is rising. ETH, as a high-elasticity growth asset, is more attractive, while BTC's "inflation anchor" function is being marginalized. Differences in the transmission of rate cut benefits: when rate cut expectations strengthen, capital is more willing to allocate to assets with cash flow attributes or ecological expansion potential. ETH has become the preferred choice due to PoS staking yields and ecological prosperity, while BTC lacks similar cash flow support, making it relatively less sensitive to liquidity easing. Therefore, in the phase of "increased risk appetite," BTC's macro attributes have become a drag.

Another major challenge for BTC comes from the capital flow of spot ETFs. This week, BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $1.165 billion, directly contributing to the pressure on its price. This capital outflow reflects the behavior patterns of institutional investors: when BTC prices remain high for an extended period, they tend to lock in profits or shift positions to more elastic ETH. Data shows that the net inflow of BTC ETFs at the beginning of the year drove prices to a peak, but with the rise of the ETH narrative, there have been clear signs of "migration from BTC to ETH" among some funds. The change in institutional capital attitudes is one of the core pressures BTC currently faces. On-chain data for BTC shows that long-term holders (LTH) are releasing some chips. The rising on-chain profit margins have led some early investors to choose to cash out at high levels, increasing selling pressure in the market. Meanwhile, BTC's market share (dominance) continues to decline, dropping from nearly 50% at the beginning of the year to below 45%. This trend indicates that BTC's "dominant position" in the market is being weakened. The ecological expansion of ETH and the siphoning effect of capital have reduced BTC's relative weight in capital allocation. If this trend continues, BTC will gradually degrade from "market core" to "allocation base," with its market-driving ability diminishing. From a technical perspective, BTC is currently in a downward oscillation channel; although it has received some support from the 60-day moving average, the overhead pressure is heavy. The decline in trading volume and the contraction in volatility indicate that BTC is in a "low activity" phase. In contrast, the high volatility and high trading of ETH and altcoins have attracted more short-term capital. From a cyclical perspective, BTC's performance often leads the macro liquidity cycle, but at this stage, it is lagging behind ETH. This is closely related to the change in capital preferences: investors are more willing to chase short-term gains, while BTC's slow pace and low elasticity temporarily lack trading appeal.

Despite facing challenges of capital outflow and declining market attention, BTC's long-term logic has not completely failed: institutional cornerstone position: BTC remains the most accepted asset among crypto assets, and the existence of ETFs provides a long-term capital foundation. Safe-haven attribute as a bottom line: once macro risk events occur, BTC's "digital gold" positioning may still attract capital. Potential for cyclical rebounds: if ETH experiences a phase correction, capital may flow back into BTC, forming a relative recovery market. However, BTC's future opportunities are more defensive than offensive. It may perform steadily when downward risks arise, but in phases of liquidity easing and rising risk appetite, its performance will continue to lag behind ETH and altcoin sectors. Currently, BTC's challenges focus on three aspects: weakened macro logic: under rate cut expectations, its "digital gold" narrative lacks elastic advantages; severe capital outflow: net outflows from ETFs and whale position shifts have weakened market buying demand; declining market share: the rise of ETH and altcoins has eroded BTC's dominant position. In the future, BTC's trend may present a "oscillating defensive" pattern. It remains a foundational asset for institutional allocation, but in the short term, it is unlikely to become the core driving force of the market. In the new round of liquidity easing cycle, BTC is more likely to play the role of a "value anchor" rather than a "growth engine."

IV. Macro Risks and Uncertainties

Against the backdrop of ETH breaking its historical high and a comprehensive rebound in market risk appetite, investors' optimistic sentiment has rapidly heated up. However, macro and on-chain data indicate that the current market situation is not without flaws, and potential risks and uncertainties still exist. Whether in terms of policy direction or capital structure, the market may face severe reversal pressures. This section analyzes from four aspects: macro policy, data verification, market structure, and regulation. Although Powell released a clear dovish signal at Jackson Hole, and the market almost views the September rate cut as a "done deal," there are still divisions within the Federal Reserve. Some officials emphasize that inflation risks remain high, and premature easing may lead to uncontrolled inflation expectations. For example, Fed Governor Musalem explicitly pointed out that whether to cut rates should not be based solely on the results of one meeting but should focus on the "overall interest rate path." This means that if future data verification is insufficient, the Fed may choose to delay or reduce the rate cut magnitude. The market's previous pricing of liquidity easing has been overly optimistic; if expectations fall short, ETH and the overall crypto assets may face a sharp short-term correction.

The August CPI and non-farm employment report will become the core indicators determining whether there will be a rate cut in September. If the data performs worse than expected, it will strengthen employment risks and support the Federal Reserve in starting a rate cut cycle; however, if inflation rebounds or employment unexpectedly remains strong, the market will readjust its expectations for rate cuts, and at that time, the valuations of risk assets may face significant compression. This "data dependency" amplifies the short-term uncertainty in the market. Investors need to be cautious that market volatility will significantly increase before and after the data is released, with high-leverage funds likely to be the first to bear the brunt. On-chain data shows that during this round of ETH's rise, the liquidation amount reached $368 million, surpassing BTC. A large number of shorts were passively squeezed out when the market broke through, driving prices up rapidly. However, accompanying the rise was an accelerated influx of leveraged funds. Whale rolling positions, 25x leveraged long positions, and FOMO buying have led to a significant increase in market leverage. Once the market reverses, these leveraged positions may become the trigger for a chain liquidation, causing short-term liquidity crunches. The extreme nature of market sentiment amplifies volatility and increases the vulnerability of risk exposure.

The long-term development of the crypto market is still constrained by the regulatory environment in various countries. Although U.S. President Trump has shown an open attitude towards crypto in some policies, the uncertainty of his tariff policies and financial regulatory strategies may still pose external risks to the market. If regulatory authorities increase scrutiny of crypto platforms, stablecoins, or staking businesses, it may affect the pace of capital inflows.

In addition, the policy positions of other global economies cannot be ignored. Europe is advancing the MiCA framework, while Asian countries are cautiously observing capital flows. If major global economies tighten their policies, cross-border capital flows in the crypto market may be suppressed. Overall, although the current market is driven by rate cut expectations and on-chain capital, risks and uncertainties remain high: internal divisions within the Federal Reserve may lead to a rate cut pace lower than expected; macro data verification is a key variable supporting the continuation of the market; the accumulation of leveraged funds increases market volatility risks; global regulatory uncertainties may affect medium- to long-term capital inflows. Therefore, although ETH has dual macro and ecological benefits, market participants need to remain rational and avoid blindly chasing highs. Before the rate cut is finalized and data is confirmed, the sustainability of the market still requires cautious observation.

V. Conclusion

In the fourth week of August 2025, Powell's speech at Jackson Hole became the core catalyst for the global risk asset market. The dovish signals released caused market expectations for a rate cut in September to rapidly rise to over 90%, driving a synchronized rebound in U.S. stocks and the crypto market. ETH took advantage of this momentum to break through its historical high, with a single-day increase of over 14%, reshaping the market structure and becoming the core asset of the new cycle. Overall, this week's market exhibited three core logics: first, macro liquidity repricing. Powell's speech indicated that the Federal Reserve's policy focus is gradually shifting from "inflation first" to "employment first." This shift suggests that the liquidity environment may significantly improve in the coming months, providing mid-term support for risk assets. ETH's sensitivity to marginal changes in liquidity is significantly higher than that of BTC, making it the preferred choice for capital. Second, market structure reconstruction. BTC faced capital outflows and ETF selling pressure this week, leading to a price decline and a continuous drop in market share. In contrast, ETH not only broke through its own price but also drove a broad rally in Layer 2, staking, and restaking sectors, forming an "ecological resonance." The signs of capital rotation are clear: BTC is gradually degrading from a "destination for funds" to a "source of liquidity," while ETH is becoming the new "liquidity magnet" in the market. Third, the resonance of on-chain capital and sentiment. Whale position shifts, rolling positions amplifying leverage, and well-known investors concentrating their bets on ETH all indicate that leading capital is optimistic about ETH's long-term prospects. However, this capital push also amplifies market volatility. The accumulation of high leverage and FOMO sentiment means that while the market is strong, potential risks cannot be ignored.

Looking ahead, after breaking through its historical high, market expectations for ETH have further opened up. If the Federal Reserve cuts rates as expected in September, ETH is likely to maintain its strength, with the price range potentially moving towards $10,000 to $20,000. However, it is important to note that the continuation of the market still depends on macro data verification and sustained capital inflows. On the risk front, investors need to be cautious about three points: first, if the August CPI and non-farm data exceed expectations, it may shake the logic of rate cuts; second, excessively high on-chain leveraged positions may trigger a chain reaction of liquidations; third, the uncertainty of the global regulatory environment may impose potential constraints on capital flows. Overall, the core logic of this week's market can be summarized as: "macro shift + capital rotation + ETH establishing its leading position in the cycle." ETH has become the most resilient core asset in the new cycle, and its performance will determine the risk appetite level of the entire crypto market in the coming months. For investors, it is essential to seize the structural opportunities presented by ETH while being wary of the volatility risks brought about by short-term overheating, maintaining rationality and patience in the verification of macro and on-chain data.

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