The policy dividends continue to ferment, and macro data will set the market tone.
Since August, the cryptocurrency market has maintained a strong trend, with Bitcoin reaching a new historical high and Ethereum prices also rising significantly. As global liquidity remains loose, institutional allocation confidence is warming up, and crypto assets are at a critical juncture where policy, capital, and macro expectations intersect. In this issue, HTX Research Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) analyzes recent trends in the crypto market concerning liquidity trends, on-chain heat, and upcoming core data and policies.
Global liquidity remains loose, institutional allocation willingness increases
Global liquidity remained high at the end of August. According to StreetStats, as of August 27, 2025, the M2 money supply of major global economies was approximately $95.116 trillion, setting a new historical high; the increase over the past three months reached 3.87%. This indicates that monetary supply continues to be loose in the short term, providing significant support for Bitcoin's strength. Meanwhile, institutional position concentration has further increased. As of August 27, the U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETF held approximately 1.3 million Bitcoins, accounting for about 6% of the circulating supply; MicroStrategy purchased another 430 Bitcoins between July and August, increasing its total holdings to 629,376 Bitcoins, showing that short-term volatility has not affected institutions' long-term allocation demand.
Favorable regulatory developments took place in early August and continue to ferment. On August 7, the U.S. President signed an executive order allowing 401(k) retirement plans to invest in Bitcoin and other alternative assets. This policy sparked discussions in the market about new Bitcoin financial products in late August. Considering that the funds managed under 401(k) plans are approximately $8.9 trillion, if only 1% of these funds were allocated to Bitcoin, it could potentially bring about $89 billion in incremental demand.
On-chain indicators are temporarily overheated, but structural risks are controllable
In terms of on-chain data, although it is temporarily overheated, the overall situation remains healthy. At the end of August, the MVRV-Z indicator was about 2.49, above the historical average, suggesting potential short-term pullback risks; however, the aSOPR was about 1.019, and NUPL was 0.558, indicating that both realized and unrealized profit levels remain stable, and the market is not overly inflated overall.
Policy dividends continue to ferment, macro data will set the market tone
Upcoming macro data may also influence market sentiment. Preliminary estimates released by the U.S. Department of Commerce show that the actual GDP growth rate for the second quarter was 3.0% on a quarter-over-quarter annualized basis, significantly higher than the -0.5% in the first quarter, mainly due to a sharp decline in imports, a rebound in consumer spending, and increased government spending. The market expects that the second revision value to be released on August 28 may be adjusted down to about 3% or even 2.4%. If this adjustment occurs, it may strengthen expectations for continued easing. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report for July, to be released on August 29, is seen as the last key inflation indicator before the FOMC meeting in September. Economists generally expect the core PCE year-on-year to slightly rise from 2.8% to 2.9%, with a month-on-month rate of about 0.3%, while the overall PCE year-on-year remains around 2.6%. If the data exceeds expectations, the market may reassess the timing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts; if it falls short of expectations, it would be more favorable for Bitcoin.
Note: The content of this article is not investment advice and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, or recommendation for investment products.
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