Key Points:
ETH aims for a record monthly close, releasing potential for a year-end rebound.
Historical data shows an average increase of 60% from August to December, although September typically sees a pullback.
The monthly MACD has flipped bullish, echoing past signals and indicating a major upward trend.
Ethereum's native token, Ether (ETH), is on track for its highest monthly close in history, expected to break the current record high of around $4955.
This trend could provide ETH with an upside potential of up to 60% before the end of the year.
Whenever ETH closes higher in August, historical data indicates an average return of about 60% in the following months.
According to data platform CoinGlass, ETH rose 92.9% in August 2017, driven by the initial coin offering (ICO) boom, laying the groundwork for a further 91% increase by year-end.
In 2020, ETH rose 25.3% in August, followed by a 69% increase from September to December, with November alone seeing a return of 59%, driven primarily by the accelerated adoption of DeFi applications.
Even in 2021, when the market was overheated, ETH still rose 35.6% in August and increased by 17.8% by year-end.
Conversely, if Ethereum closes lower in August, the average performance by year-end shows a pullback of -14.1%, highlighting the importance of a positive close this month.
However, there is another detail worth noting. After a strong rise in August, September typically sees a decline, with an average pullback of about 17%.
Analyst Axel Bitblaze notes that such early pullbacks often lead to traders suffering from "bear market post-traumatic stress disorder" being washed out of the market.
Once the panic selling ends, ETH usually experiences a strong rebound in the last quarter.
Bitblaze believes ETH will restart its upward trend, targeting a range of $6800-$7000. This target aligns with previous predictions from Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick and other market analysts.
If the historical rebound pattern continues after August, Ethereum could further rise, potentially nearing $7375 by year-end with a 60% increase from the current price level.
The Ethereum monthly MACD has just confirmed a bullish crossover, indicating that the short-term momentum (blue) line has crossed above the long-term (orange) line.
In past cycles, this crossover has marked the beginning of significant rebounds.
The MACD for Ethereum flipped bullish in early 2020, after which ETH's price surged over 2200% before peaking in 2021. Another occurrence was at the end of 2023, followed by a rebound of over 120% in mid-2025.
In contrast, the MACD death cross in early 2022 coincided with a decline in Ethereum's value of over 70%, demonstrating the importance of these signals at market cycle turning points.
With the latest golden cross appearing, the market sentiment is shifting back upward, further supporting expectations for ETH to challenge the $7000-$7500 range by the end of 2025.
Related: Metaplanet board approves plan to raise $1.2 billion, designating $835 million for Bitcoin (BTC) purchases.
Original: “Ethereum (ETH) Achieves Best Monthly Performance in History, $7000 Target Within Reach”
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