Key Points:
By 2026, developed economies will have $33 trillion in debt maturing, creating a refinancing wall that could consume liquidity and put pressure on risk assets as borrowing costs remain high.
Global liquidity is expected to peak by the end of 2025, which historically has often been a precursor to market tightening.
Since World War II, long-term bull markets have generally lasted 18 to 19 years; the current bull market that began in 2009 may continue until 2028 after experiencing mid-term fluctuations.
An increasing number of crypto market experts believe that the traditional four-year Bitcoin (BTC) cycle is no longer applicable. They point out that 95% of Bitcoin has already been mined, with about 1 million BTC currently held in corporate treasuries, and macroeconomic and regulatory forces increasingly dominate price movements.
Whether the halving cycle has completely disappeared or has simply given way to other price drivers, Bitcoin has synchronized with traditional financial markets, where liquidity, refinancing demand, and long-term valuation cycles have become dominant factors. Understanding these traditional financial rhythms may be as crucial for Bitcoin's future as its halving cycle.
According to the International Financial Association, the total global debt in the first quarter of 2024 is approximately $315 trillion. The Financial Times notes that the average maturity of this debt is seven years, with about $50 trillion needing refinancing each year.
2026 will be a critical testing point, as the annual "maturity wall" for developed economies will grow by nearly 20%, surpassing $33 trillion—almost three times the annual capital expenditures of these economies. In the current high-interest rate environment, such a scale of refinancing will put immense pressure on governments and corporations, especially those with weaker credit profiles.
This maturity wall could become a real stress test for risk assets—including stocks, high-yield bonds, emerging market debt, and cryptocurrencies. Market liquidity will be absorbed by the massive refinancing demand, further constraining the space for risk assets.
Even if the Federal Reserve begins to cut interest rates this fall, the level of rates will still be far higher than during most of the debt issuance period from 2010 to 2021. This will lead to increased capital costs, wider credit spreads, and higher premium demands from investors for risk assets.
Risk assets are highly dependent on ample liquidity and low financing costs. As refinancing demand squeezes marginal borrowers, these assets may face valuation pressure, reduced capital inflows, and increased volatility.
For Bitcoin, this situation corresponds to the final phase of its four-year cycle—a bear market. If global liquidity fails to expand significantly (analysts at the Financial Times believe that to maintain system stability, liquidity needs to increase by 8% to 10% annually), the maturity wall could have severe consequences.
Currently, global liquidity continues to grow. In June 2025, the M2 of the four major central banks globally increased by 7% year-on-year, reaching $95 trillion. A broader measure proposed by economist Michael Howell (including short-term credit liabilities and cash held by households and businesses) shows that global liquidity in the second quarter of 2025 will be $182.8 trillion, an increase of $11.4 trillion from the end of 2024, approximately 1.6 times the global GDP.
However, liquidity also exhibits cyclical fluctuations. Howell's global liquidity index shows that it bottomed out in December 2022 and is currently pointing to a peak by the end of 2025. Historical experience indicates that market volatility typically rises after liquidity peaks: as financing tightens, money market rates may spike, prompting investors to start selling risk assets.
Bank reserves in the U.S. also show a similar trend. Data from the New York Federal Reserve indicates that current reserves are $3.2 trillion, still considered "ample," but the balance sheet reduction target is to bring it down to "adequate" levels.
From this perspective, if liquidity begins to contract in 2026, Bitcoin is likely to be affected, and the bear market may deepen. However, if debt pressures prompt central banks to reverse policies and inject liquidity—even if contrary to Howell's predicted liquidity cycle—liquidity expansion could instead provide new upward momentum for Bitcoin.
In addition to liquidity and refinancing, long-term market cycles are also crucial. The Kobeissi Letter utilizes the CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings) model to show that the current long-term bull market, which began in 2009, has lasted 16 years. The cycle from 1982 to 2000 saw a rise of 114%, ultimately ending with the burst of the internet bubble; while the period from 1949 to 1968 experienced smaller peaks and deeper pullbacks towards the end.
Analysts believe the current market is closer to the 1960s model rather than the late 1990s bubble. The CAPE model indicates that market returns may further increase before this long-term wave ends. If historical cycles lasting 19 and 18 years are any reference, this wave may conclude in 2028. They add:
For Bitcoin, this could mean that the bear market pressure in 2026 will be less severe, with a strong recovery potentially occurring in 2027 and 2028 (the year of the next halving).
Ultimately, no single indicator can determine the future. Multiple factors, including debt levels, liquidity cycles, policy changes, innovation, and investor psychology, collectively influence the economy. Market fluctuations depend on the interplay of these forces rather than any single factor. For Bitcoin, its future will also be shaped by multiple variables, not just by halving or liquidity peaks.
Related: Bitcoin traders say: $110,000 threshold becomes BTC price "life and death line"
Original: “Bitcoin (BTC) and the 2026 Debt Wall: Two Major Cycles Colliding”
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
