According to analyst James Check, the market cycles of Bitcoin are not driven by halving events as widely believed, but by other factors that influence bull and bear cycles.
"In my view, Bitcoin has gone through three cycles, and they are not centered around halving events," Check said on Wednesday, referring to the mining reward reductions that typically occur every four years on the blockchain.
He stated that market cycles revolve around "adoption trends and market structure," with the market peak in 2017 and the bottom in 2022 being turning points.
Check defined the previous three cycles as: the "adoption cycle" from 2011 to 2018, driven by early retail adoption; the "adolescence cycle" from 2018 to 2022, propelled by "leverage-driven wild west booms and busts"; and the current "maturity cycle" that began in 2022, driven by "institutional maturity and stability."
"Things changed after the bear market in 2022; those who assumed the past would repeat might miss signals because they are focused on historical noise," he said.
Check's analysis contradicts popular theory, which posits that Bitcoin (BTC) market cycles typically last four years and are centered around its halving events, triggering supply shocks due to reduced block rewards and increased demand.
At this time, bull market peak years occur one year after halving events, as seen in 2013, 2017, and 2021, and it seems likely to repeat this pattern in 2025.
Check also stated that Bitcoin is "the only other ultimate asset alongside gold," suggesting that the current cycle may be prolonged.
Recently, many predictions have suggested that the traditional four-year cycle has ended, and due to institutional participation, this bull market may extend into next year.
Earlier this month, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matthew Hougan commented on this cycle, saying, "It hasn't officially ended until we see positive returns in 2026. But I think we will see it, so let me put it this way: I believe the four-year cycle has ended."
Entrepreneur "TechDev" told his 546,000 followers on the X platform on Tuesday, "The dynamics of business cycles have always been all that is needed to understand Bitcoin," showcasing the peaks and troughs of previous cycles.
The analysis indicates that the transition from bearish to bullish phases is driven by liquidity dynamics rather than the traditional four-year halving cycle, with the only difference this time being the extension of the bullish phase.
Glassnode analysts stated on August 20 that Bitcoin is still tracking its traditional cycle pattern. On Tuesday, they reiterated that recent profit-taking and increased selling pressure "indicate that the market has entered the later stages of the cycle."
Meanwhile, position trader Bob Loukas has a more pragmatic view of market cycles.
Related: The similarity of Bitcoin (BTC) prices to the Q2 decline is "stunning," as the Coinbase premium index turns positive.
Original article: “Analyst: Bitcoin (BTC) Market Cycles Not Anchored by Halvings”
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